Polymarket Assigns 96.3% Odds Fed Will Hold Rates Unchanged Despite Trump's Advocacy

Bettors on the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket have priced in a 96.3% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged during its July 29–30 policy meeting, despite Donald Trump’s public advocacy for rate cuts. The data reflects a near-unanimous expectation among market participants that the Fed will continue its data-dependent approach, delaying cuts until there is clearer evidence of inflationary moderation [1].

The odds are derived from real-time trading on Polymarket’s contracts, with 3% of bets allocated to a 25-basis-point rate cut and less than 1% to larger cuts or hikes. This aligns with recent statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has emphasized the need to assess the economic impact of tariffs and other inflationary pressures before adjusting monetary policy. Trump, meanwhile, has publicly criticized the Fed’s cautious stance, asserting during a July 24 visit to the Fed’s renovation site that the central bank should have already begun easing rates [2].

The disparity between political rhetoric and market expectations underscores the limited influence of high-profile advocacy on policy decisions. While Trump’s remarks have drawn attention, the Fed’s independence in setting rates remains a critical factor. The central bank’s framework prioritizes metrics such as employment, inflation, and industrial output, rather than external pressures from elected officials. This independence has historically bolstered the Fed’s credibility, though the recent public tension between Trump and Powell has raised broader questions about the balance of power in monetary policymaking [3].

Prediction markets like Polymarket have increasingly been viewed as barometers of market sentiment, aggregating diverse perspectives to forecast outcomes. Analysts note that such platforms often capture shifts in expectations more quickly than traditional forecasts, which rely on expert models. The 96.3% probability of no rate cut suggests that traders are confident in the Fed’s current trajectory, which includes a three-month pause in rate adjustments and a focus on stabilizing inflation expectations [1].

The July meeting will be a focal point for markets, but Polymarket’s odds indicate little movement in the short term. Longer-term probabilities, however, show a gradual rise in the likelihood of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s exit from his role, with contracts trading at 1% for his departure by July 31, 5% by August 31, and 17% by year-end 2025. These figures suggest that while immediate leadership changes are unlikely, medium-term speculation has increased amid ongoing political tensions [2].

Sources: [1] [Polymarket shows 96.3% odds of no rate cut next week](https://cryptoslate.com/polymarket-shows-96-3-odds-of-no-rate-cut-next-week-despite-trump-claiming-fed-is-ready-to-ease/) [2] [Polymarket shows 96.3% odds of no rate cut next week](https://cryptoslate.com/polymarket-shows-96-3-odds-of-no-rate-cut-next-week-despite-trump-claiming-fed-is-ready-to-ease/) [3] [Polymarket shows 96.3% odds of no rate cut next week](https://cryptoslate.com/polymarket-shows-96-3-odds-of-no-rate-cut-next-week-despite-trump-claiming-fed-is-ready-to-ease/)