Polymarket Assigns 89% Probability to GENIUS Act Passage After Senate Approval

The online betting platform Polymarket has assigned an 89% probability to the passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act. This assessment comes after the US Senate approved the bill on Tuesday, prompting Polymarket to open a betting market for the legislation. The GENIUS Act aims to provide a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, often pegged to a reserve asset like the US dollar.

Polymarket, known as the world's largest prediction market, allows users to bet on the outcome of future events based on their knowledge and insights. The platform's high probability assessment for the GENIUS Act suggests a strong likelihood of its passage, reflecting the current political and regulatory landscape in the US. The bill's approval would mark a significant step in the regulation of stablecoins, which have gained prominence in recent years due to their use in various financial applications, including payments, remittances, and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms.

The GENIUS Act seeks to establish clear guidelines for the issuance and management of stablecoins, addressing concerns related to their stability, transparency, and consumer protection. The bill's passage could provide much-needed regulatory clarity for stablecoin issuers and users, fostering innovation and growth in the stablecoin market. However, the bill's fate remains uncertain, as it still needs to be approved by the US House of Representatives and signed into law by the President.

The high probability assigned by Polymarket to the GENIUS Act's passage reflects the growing recognition of stablecoins' importance in the financial ecosystem. Stablecoins have emerged as a popular alternative to traditional cryptocurrencies, offering a more stable store of value and a means of exchange for various financial transactions. The GENIUS Act's potential passage could pave the way for further innovation in the stablecoin market, as issuers and users gain greater regulatory certainty.

Cryptocurrency users are betting on the odds that US legislation to regulate payment stablecoins will move forward, following a crucial vote in the Senate and a public push from President Donald Trump to “get it to [his] desk.”

It’s unclear whether the bill will have enough support to pass the House in its current form or whether lawmakers could add amendments to address concerns over Trump’s connections to the crypto industry, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1. A majority of senators voted against a similar amendment before the final passage of the GENIUS Act, which moved the legislation to the House.

Depending on the final shape of the bill, it could open the floodgates for US companies to issue their own stablecoins to settle transactions. Tech giants like Apple and Google were reportedly considering their own tokens, and two US senators forwarded questions to Meta on whether the company might have the same plans if the bill were to be signed into law.

Trump has suggested he will sign the GENIUS Act with “no add ons” if the House were to pass it quickly. Republicans have a slim majority in the chamber and may soon face a floor vote on a bill to establish a crypto market structure framework. The CLARITY Act, which passed out of committee last week, could clarify the roles US financial regulators would have over digital assets.

Odds on Polymarket do not necessarily offer insight as to whether US lawmakers will pass the bill or Trump will sign it into law. Rather, the platform shows how much some crypto users are willing to wager on one or more particular outcomes.