Polymarket Assigns 89% Chance to GENIUS Act Becoming Law

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, has assigned an 89% probability to the GENIUS Act becoming law, sparking controversy within the crypto space. This prediction followed a pivotal Senate vote and a public call from President Donald Trump to accelerate the bill's passage. The GENIUS Act, if enacted, could allow major tech firms such as Apple and Google to issue their own stablecoins, a development that has piqued the interest of crypto enthusiasts.

The platform's prediction, which became available around 18 hours after the Senate's 68-30 vote in favor of the bill, indicates a high likelihood of the GENIUS Act passing both the Senate and the House and being signed into law by the president before 2026. However, the journey to enactment is fraught with challenges. The bill's support in the House remains uncertain, and there are concerns about potential amendments that could address Trump's ties to the crypto space, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1. Several senators had previously voted against similar changes, signaling potential resistance to the bill's current form.

The GENIUS Act's passage could have profound implications for the crypto industry. It could pave the way for US companies to issue their own stablecoins, potentially transforming the way payments are settled. Tech giants like Apple and Google have reportedly considered creating their own tokens, and two United States senators have already inquired about Meta's plans in this regard. Trump has indicated his willingness to sign the bill without amendments if it is passed swiftly by the House.

In addition to the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, another bill aimed at establishing a framework for the crypto market structure, is also advancing. This bill, which was approved by the House Committee on Financial Services, seeks to clarify the responsibilities of US financial regulators over digital assets. The CLARITY Act's progress, along with the GENIUS Act, could significantly reshape the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies in the US, potentially strengthening the crypto world.

It is crucial to understand that Polymarket's odds do not necessarily predict the actual passage of the GENIUS Act or its signing into law by the president. Instead, they reflect the level of confidence among crypto enthusiasts regarding the bill's prospects. The prediction market serves as a gauge of sentiment within the crypto community, indicating a high level of interest and optimism surrounding the potential passage of the GENIUS Act.