Polymarket 96.3% Odds Fed Holds Rates Despite Trump's Ease Claims

The prediction market platform Polymarket has assigned a 96.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate trajectory without implementing a rate cut during its July 29–30, 2025 meeting. This starkly contrasts with public statements by Donald Trump, who has repeatedly asserted the central bank is “ready” to ease monetary policy in the coming weeks. The high confidence in a rate hold reflects a consensus among traders that the Fed will prioritize controlling inflation over accommodative measures, despite external political pressure. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks futures markets, assigns a slightly higher 3.1% chance of a rate cut, underscoring a divergence between prediction market and futures market expectations [1].

The Polymarket odds align with broader market sentiment, which has tempered speculation about rate cuts in recent months. Analysts suggest traders are interpreting the Fed’s cautious stance—as evidenced by its repeated emphasis on data-dependent decision-making—as a signal that inflationary risks remain unmitigated. Despite Trump’s advocacy for lower rates to stimulate economic growth, the overwhelming market view indicates policymakers will likely extend their current pause in rate adjustments, which has persisted since mid-2024. This approach reflects a focus on labor market resilience and the Fed’s historical reluctance to act prematurely amid uncertain inflation trends [2].

The 96.3% probability of a rate hold also highlights a growing skepticism toward aggressive rate-cutting cycles among investors. The Fed’s policy trajectory has been defined by extended pauses, and market participants are increasingly aligning their strategies with a scenario where rate cuts remain distant. This dynamic has implications for asset classes sensitive to interest rate changes, including cryptocurrencies. While major tokens like Ethereum (ETH), Polygon (MATIC), and USD Coin (USDC) have remained stable ahead of the July meeting, the low volatility aligns with expectations of no immediate policy shift. The $2.9 million in volume traded on Polymarket’s Fed rate contracts further reinforces confidence in the status quo [3].

Critically, the prediction market’s figures do not guarantee a specific policy outcome but rather quantify collective expectations. The Fed’s decisions will ultimately hinge on incoming economic data and internal assessments, with officials like Chair Jerome Powell having consistently stressed that policy adjustments must be guided by evidence. The near-unanimous view among traders suggests policymakers will resist calls for easing, particularly given the risks posed by sticky inflation and a robust labor market. This stance reinforces the Fed’s credibility in navigating complex macroeconomic conditions and underscores its independence from political pressures [4].

The event highlights the growing influence of prediction markets like Polymarket in shaping narratives around central bank decisions. By aggregating bets from a global network of participants, these platforms provide a real-time gauge of market psychology, often outperforming traditional forecasts in capturing nuanced expectations. As the July meeting approaches, continued monitoring of such indicators will be crucial for understanding how traders perceive the Fed’s policy trajectory and its broader economic implications.

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[1] [Polymarket shows 96.3% odds of no rate cut next week despite Trump claiming Fed is 'ready' to ease](https://cryptoslate.com/polymarket-shows-96-3-odds-of-no-rate-cut-next-week-despite-trump-claiming-fed-is-ready-to-ease/)

[2] [Polymarket Assigns 96.3% Odds Fed Will Hold Rates ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/polymarket-assigns-96-3-odds-fed-hold-rates-unchanged-trump-advocacy-2507/)

[3] [Bitcoin's four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market ...](https://coinmarketcal.com/fr/news/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics)

[4] [Gold, spot commodities News](https://m.netdania.com/commodities/xauusdoz/idc-news)