Polymarket 2028 Election Bets: J.D. Vance Leads at 28% as Trump Trails at 3% Due to Constitutional Limits

Polymarket’s predictive market for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election has drawn over $1.1 million in participation, with J.D. Vance emerging as the leading contender. Betters on the platform currently assign Vance a 28% probability of winning the presidency, a figure that has stabilized around the 25-28% range since the market’s initial launch. This contrasts sharply with Donald Trump, who trails with a 3% chance of securing a third term, a position attributed to constitutional limitations restricting a president to two elected terms. Despite Trump’s vocal ambitions—marked by the release of “Trump 2028” merchandise—betters remain skeptical of his viability.

Trump’s 3% odds have not dampened interest in his candidacy, as he remains the second most funded bet on Polymarket, with $148,028 in wagers. The ’s campaign for a third term is legally constrained by the 22nd Amendment, which explicitly bars non-consecutive third terms for any individual. However, his supporters continue to champion the cause, with Trump recently reiterating his “not joking” stance on seeking additional office after his 2028 term concludes.

Other prominent figures are also attracting attention in the betting pool. California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic field with 14% odds, followed by U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%. Both candidates reflect the diversity of potential contenders, though Ocasio-Cortez’s political profile has faced recent turbulence due to controversy over her vote on a defense spending bill related to Israel. Notable names further down the list include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Senator Marco Rubio, and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who shares Trump’s 3% odds despite being the third most heavily wagered candidate with $117,168 in bets.

The betting landscape is further populated by names such as Donald Trump Jr. and Elon Musk, the latter of whom has a history of public support for Trump. The inclusion of Musk underscores the eclectic mix of potential candidates, though his political trajectory remains undefined. Former 2024 candidate Kamala Harris’s presence in the pool highlights her lingering relevance, despite her current low odds.

Historically, Polymarket has demonstrated significant influence as a predictive tool. During the 2024 U.S. election, the platform saw over $3.6 billion in betting volume, with Trump securing a 99.8% win rate in the final stretch. However, the platform’s credibility has faced challenges, including a governance attack on its UMA oracle system tied to a Trump-related Ukrainian mineral deal. The incident, resolved by a last-minute intervention from a high-stakes bettor, raised questions about the integrity of its outcomes.

While Polymarket’s data offers insight into public sentiment, it remains a speculative market. The 2028 election is four years away, and political landscapes are inherently fluid. Current odds reflect the views of a specific subset of betters and may shift in response to unforeseen events, such as new candidates entering the race or major policy developments. Nonetheless, the platform’s role as a barometer for emerging trends in the political arena is undeniable, even as its limitations—such as the 2024 governance incident—remain under scrutiny.

For now, the 2028 race is framed by Vance’s lead and Trump’s constitutional hurdles, with other candidates vying for attention in a rapidly evolving field. As the election approaches, Polymarket’s data will likely continue to serve as both a guide and a gauge for the unpredictable nature of American politics.