Polygon's Price Flow: Seller Flush Status and Long-Term Forecast

The immediate price action shows a clear recovery. POL is up nearly 13% since February 11, holding near $0.095 after a 5.4% gain in the past 24 hours. This setup visually echoes the pattern that preceded the 90% January surge. However, the critical on-chain signal for a true reversal is absent. The last rally began after sellers were fully flushed out with a decisive lower low. This time, the structure is different.

Price printed a lower low near $0.087 between January 31 and February 11, but it tested that zone twice. This creates a "lower-low zone" instead of a clean capitulation point, indicating sellers are still active and supply has not been fully absorbed. The RSI shows a higher low, a bullish divergence that signals weakening selling pressure, but it lacks the decisive breakdown that clears the market. Critical support now sits between $0.083 and $0.087. Without a full seller flush, the rally lacks the psychological foundation for a sustained move higher.

Derivatives data confirms the market's caution. Open interest has remained flat near $18.8 million since the rally began, showing no strong buildup of leveraged longs. More telling is the negative funding rate, near -0.012, which signals growing bearish positioning. Traders are betting against the rally, seeing unfinished downside risk. This muted leverage and rising shorts keep momentum controlled and pressure constant. Despite today's 4% drop, POL remains above the $0.106 support level that could sustain the bounce. The rally is moving forward, but under the shadow of unresolved selling pressure.

Long-Term Price Forecast: Evidence-Based Scenarios

The path to the $1 threshold hinges on network value models translating adoption into token demand. Metrics like the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio and adaptations of Metcalfe's Law suggest that if Polygon's transaction volume and user base scale proportionally, the current price could be a fraction of its long-term potential. This model assumes the network's utility-processing millions of daily transactions at low cost-drives sustained MATIC usage for fees and staking. The critical driver is Total Value Locked (TVL), which grew 93% year-over-year to $4.12 billion by March 2025. This expansion, led by DeFi and gaming dApps, provides a tangible floor for network activity and a key input for valuation models.

Looking ahead, specific forecasts project a multi-year climb. Based on the evidence, MATIC is expected to trade between $2.07 and $2.39 by 2026, with an average near $2.12. The trajectory accelerates into 2027, where predictions show a minimum of $3.03 and a peak of $3.60. These scenarios assume sustained development, such as the rollout of Polygon 2.0, and favorable market cycles. The growth is not linear; the forecast shows a significant jump to an average of $9.18 by 2030, implying a 30x+ increase from the 2026 range. This implies a massive expansion in network utility and user adoption over the next five years.

The bottom line is that these long-term forecasts are built on a foundation of real adoption. Enterprise partnerships with companies like Disney and Starbucks, combined with a developer ecosystem that consistently adds new addresses and dApps, provide the qualitative fuel for the quantitative models. However, the path is not guaranteed. The forecasts represent a best-case scenario contingent on successful execution of the technical roadmap and a broader crypto market environment that supports risk assets. For now, the evidence points to a network scaling its value, but the price must catch up.

Catalysts, Levels, and Flow Watchpoints

The immediate test is clear: the market must decide if sellers are finally exhausted or still active. A decisive break below the $0.083-$0.087 support zone would invalidate the current bullish setup. That level is the foundation of the "lower-low zone" pattern. If it fails, it signals that selling pressure remains intact and the rally lacks a clean base. Conversely, sustained trading above $0.106 is needed to confirm the bounce. A clean break above $0.118 would attract leverage, weaken shorts, and finally complete the seller flush.

If the flush completes, the path opens higher. Targets would then be $0.137 and $0.186. The key flow watchpoint is whether price prints a new lower low near $0.087. The repeated tests of that zone show sellers are still active. A decisive, single-day breakdown to that level would signal a final capitulation, clearing the market for a sustained move. Until then, the rally will likely remain pressured by muted leverage and rising bearish positioning.

For long-term flow, monitor the accumulation of whale holdings. Since early February, whale holdings have risen from around 7.5 billion to nearly 8.75 billion POL. This quiet accumulation supports price but delays a full seller flush. A shift from absorption to aggressive buying by large holders could be a leading signal of a major reversal. For now, the market is in a tug-of-war, and the resolution depends on these specific levels and the flow of large coins.