Poll: Bank of Canada will hold rates through 2026, say 25 of 33 economists (vs 26 of 35 in January)

The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its key interest rate of 2.25% through 2026, according to a recent poll of 33 economists, with 25 forecasting no change—a slight increase in consensus compared to 26 of 35 economists in January 2026. This decision reflects mixed economic signals, including a slowdown in job growth, a rise in unemployment, and inflation that has exceeded expectations despite declines in core measures. The central bank's cautious approach is also influenced by heightened trade uncertainties, particularly with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) set for review in July 2026.

The BoC has already cut rates by 275 basis points since June 2024, positioning the current rate at the low end of its neutral range (2.25%-3.25%), which neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. Economists note that while inflation remains near the midpoint of the BoC's 1%-3% target range, growth is projected to gradually rise to 2% by year-end 2026, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter. However, risks persist, including potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports and geopolitical tensions, which could force further rate cuts.

Most analysts anticipate the BoC will adopt a wait-and-see stance, with rate cuts more likely than hikes if economic conditions weaken. "The economy is at a turning point," said RBC's Claire Fan, as earlier rate cuts are expected to provide ongoing support. The central bank's updated Monetary Policy Report underscores the vulnerability of its outlook to unpredictable trade policies and global risks.

Reuters poll (Jan 2026)
Reuters (Jan 23, 2026)
Reuters (Jan 23, 2026)
Yahoo Finance Canada (Mar 2026)