Polkadot/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from a high of $3.171 to a 24-hour low of $2.857, ending at $2.995.
• RSI dropped from overbought to neutral territory, indicating potential bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as seen in Bollinger Band width, with price closing near the lower band.
• Turnover surged over $11 million, reflecting heightened interest during key price swings.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $3.171, followed by a breakdown below key support at $3.046.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume

Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) opened at $3.08 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $3.171 before dropping to a 24-hour low of $2.857. The price closed at $2.995 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-30. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 3,357,194.04 DOT, with total turnover amounting to around $9,838,992. The price action suggests a bearish bias, with a breakdown below key support levels and significant volume during the selloff.

Structure and Support/Resistance Levels

Key support levels have been tested throughout the session, with the most significant breakdown occurring below $3.046 and $2.91. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $3.171, indicating a shift in sentiment. The price has now settled near $2.995, which appears to be acting as a temporary floor. Resistance is currently at $3.012–$3.046, while the next key support lies at $2.857. A strong rebound from these levels could signal a short-term reversal, but a close below $2.857 may invite further selling.

Technical Indicators: Moving Averages, MACD, and RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both moved lower, indicating bearish momentum. The 20SMA is currently below the 50SMA, suggesting a short-term downtrend. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish bias. The RSI has fallen from overbought territory to neutral, with values hovering around 50. This decline suggests that momentum has shifted to the downside, though a rebound into overbought territory could signal a short-covering opportunity.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased, as reflected in the widening of Bollinger Bands over the past 24 hours. The price has spent much of the session near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and a potential rebound scenario. However, sustained trading near the lower band suggests continued weakness. A retest of the upper band at $3.046–$3.08 may provide a chance to confirm short-term strength, but failure to hold above that range may signal further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair involves using RSI to identify overbought conditions and exiting at the nearest support level. RSI overbought conditions (RSI > 70) would trigger a short entry at the next bar’s open. The exit strategy could be based on either the 20-day low or the most recent pivot low. For this pair, using the pivot-low method might offer tighter, more responsive exits during volatile periods. The backtest would use daily close prices and span from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-30. Adding a 2% stop-loss and 5% take-profit would help manage risk while capturing key price swings. This approach may suit traders looking to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum in a volatile asset like DOT.