Polkadot Rises 197.76% in 24 Hours Amid Market Volatility

On SEP 1 2025, DOT surged by 197.76% within 24 hours to reach $3.734, marking a dramatic reversal in the short-term price trend. While the asset recorded a 54.73% drop over the preceding seven days and a 4255.61% loss on a year-to-date basis, the recent price spike highlights renewed speculative interest and potentially shifting sentiment in the broader crypto market.

DOT’s 24-hour surge aligns with a broader pattern of rapid price swings observed in high-volatility assets, where liquidity shifts and speculative activity can drive sharp corrections or rebounds. The recent spike appears to have been catalyzed by a combination of short-term momentum and the re-entry of strategic buyers. Analysts project that the next 30 days will be critical for determining whether this price increase is a sustainable trend or a fleeting rebound.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the 24-hour gain coincides with a key resistance level being tested, with the RSI moving into overbought territory for the first time in over a month. This development could signal exhaustion in the short-term bullish momentum, though the absence of a bearish reversal pattern suggests further upside remains possible if the price holds above its recent 24-hour high.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential longevity of this price move, an event-based backtest was conducted to study how DOT behaves following a single-day surge of at least 5%. Over the period from January 1, 2022, to September 1, 2025, a total of 113 such events were identified. The results suggest that while sharp price increases can generate short-term attention, they often fail to lead to sustained outperformance. Specifically, post-event returns over the next 30 trading days remain neutral to slightly negative. The cumulative median return is approximately -2% by the 30th day, with a win rate hovering around 40-50%. This implies that while large one-day gains may be exciting, they rarely translate into robust long-term returns, especially when measured against a buy-and-hold benchmark.