Polkadot News Today: Grayscale's ADA ETF Filing Pits Innovation Against SEC Scrutiny

Recent developments in the crypto market have intensified speculation surrounding the potential approval of a Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF), with Grayscale Investments playing a pivotal role in shaping this narrative. On August 29, 2025, Grayscale submitted an amended S-1 registration form to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its proposed ADA ETF, which would trade on the NYSE Arca under the ticker GADA [2]. This filing follows an earlier 19b-4 application, underscoring Grayscale’s commitment to navigating the regulatory landscape and launching the fund [3]. The firm's actions have triggered a surge in market optimism, with Cardano ETF approval odds climbing to 87% on prediction platform Polymarket, reflecting renewed confidence among investors and analysts [2].

The Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF is designed to track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index (ADX) and will hold ADA tokens in custody through Coinbase Custody, a move that aligns with the firm’s broader strategy for institutional-grade security across its crypto ETFs [2]. The proposed fund will issue shares in baskets of 10,000 units and may eventually allow staking capabilities, contingent on regulatory approval [1]. Meanwhile, the firm is also pursuing a Polkadot (DOT) ETF under a similar framework, listing it under the ticker DOT on Nasdaq and tracking the CoinDesk Polkadot Reference Rate [4]. These filings place Grayscale among several firms vying for a piece of the altcoin ETF market, which has seen an influx of applications as the SEC continues to process over 92 pending proposals [1].

The regulatory environment remains a key factor in the trajectory of these products. The SEC’s decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF has been extended to October 26, 2025, a delay that analysts attribute to the agency’s broader caution in evaluating crypto-related instruments [2]. Despite this delay, the agency’s recent clarification that certain staking activities do not constitute securities has been viewed positively by market participants [2]. This shift in regulatory tone has contributed to a broader sense of optimism, with prediction markets increasingly favoring approval for a range of altcoin ETFs. For example, Solana (SOL) maintains a 99% approval probability on Polymarket, while Dogecoin (DOGE) and XRP have seen their odds rise to 82% and 87%, respectively [1]. These developments signal a growing appetite for diversified crypto exposure among institutional and retail investors alike.

From a market perspective, Cardano’s price has shown resilience amid the ETF-related momentum. ADA has stabilized near the $0.82 support level following a 10% weekly decline, with technical indicators suggesting a potential rebound if the level holds [4]. The price is currently trading at $0.833 with a market capitalization of $29.78 billion [3]. Analysts have noted the importance of maintaining this support, as breaking below $0.80 could trigger a deeper correction, while a successful defense may position ADA for a recovery toward $0.90–$0.92 [4]. On-chain governance improvements and positive funding rates from derivatives markets further reinforce the case for cautious optimism [5]. Everstake’s recent addition as a Delegated Representative (DRep) on the Cardano network has also been cited as a positive development, highlighting the ecosystem’s growing decentralization and participation [5].

The broader altcoin market remains in a state of flux, with the altcoin season index currently indicating that only 54 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days [7]. Despite this, altcoins like Solana, Polkadot, and Cardano continue to attract institutional interest, particularly as ETF applications gain traction. With Grayscale and other firms pushing for regulatory clarity, the coming months may see a shift in market dynamics, potentially leading to increased adoption of altcoin ETFs by professional investors and advisors [3]. As the SEC’s decision looms, the outcomes for both the Cardano and Polkadot ETF proposals will likely set a precedent for the broader approval of similar products in the U.S. market.

Source:

[1] Grayscale Submits Polkadot and Cardano ETF Registration ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/grayscale-submits-polkadot-cardano-etf-140711224.html)

[2] Cardano ETF Approval Odds Soar to 87% After Grayscale ... (https://coincentral.com/cardano-etf-approval-odds-soar-to-87-after-grayscale-s-1-filing/)

[3] Grayscale Submits S-1 Filing for Cardano ETF, ADA ... (https://u.today/grayscale-submits-s-1-filing-for-cardano-etf-ada-community-reacts)

[4] Will Grayscale's Latest ETF Filing Drive ADA to $1? (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cardano-price-analysis-grayscale-latest-211840654.html)

[5] ADA finds support as governance growth fuels optimism (https://ixbroker.com/blog/cardano-price-forecast-ada-finds-support-as-governance-growth-fuels-optimism/)

[6] Cardano Price Forecast 2025: Can ADA Break $1 and ... (https://www.mexc.com/news/cardano-price-forecast-2025-can-ada-break-1-and-target-1-84/79715)

[7] Altcoin season index chart (https://www.bitget.com/price/altcoin-season-index)

[8] Top 7 Altcoin Platforms to Watch for Massive Growth in 2025 (https://www.nadcab.com/blog/top-7-altcoin-platforms-to-watch-for-massive-growth-in-2025)