Polkadot (DOTUSD) Market Overview

• Polkadot (DOTUSD) declined from $3.803 to $3.799 over 24 hours amid fading momentum and low volume.
• A bearish breakdown below a key 15-minute support level at $3.773 was confirmed after 10:45 PM ET.
• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum, with RSI in oversold territory near 25.
• Bollinger Bands contracted sharply overnight, suggesting potential for a breakout in either direction.
• Low notional turnover and inconsistent price-volume correlation hint at a potentially range-bound near-term outlook.

Polkadot (DOTUSD) opened at $3.796 on 2025-08-31 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.799 on 2025-09-01 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $3.859 and a low of $3.644. The asset traded with a total volume of 3,344.75 and notional turnover of $12,540.81, reflecting a generally subdued 24-hour session.

Structure & Formations

DOTUSD formed a key bearish breakdown candle at 22:45 ET (2025-08-31) that gapped down from $3.803 to $3.773, closing at $3.773. This candlestick was followed by a bearish continuation at 23:15 ET, with a close at $3.771. Later in the night, a large bearish bar at 01:30 ET (2025-09-01) moved the price down from $3.737 to $3.717. These formations indicate short-term bearish bias, with immediate support at $3.71 and resistance at $3.799. A bullish reversal pattern could form if the price bounces off the $3.71–3.717 range and breaks above $3.799 with confirmation volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged closely around $3.79–3.80, with price oscillating around them during the early morning hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, but the price has not yet crossed above the 50-period line, indicating a neutral to bearish bias. The price remains below the 50-day MA, a key indicator of medium-term bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained below the signal line with a bearish divergence, while the RSI trended down into oversold territory, reaching ~25 during the overnight decline. This suggests the price may consolidate or retest support levels before a potential rebound. However, the lack of volume during the decline weakens the conviction in this bearish move, as volume is a critical confirmation factor.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained subdued overnight, with Bollinger Bands narrowing significantly between $3.76 and $3.80. The price traded near the lower band for most of the session, particularly after breaking below $3.773. A breakout above the $3.80–3.81 upper band would signal a potential reversal, while a sustained move below the $3.74–3.75 lower band would confirm a new bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity was minimal for much of the 24-hour period, with only a few spikes, including a large 329.93 unit volume bar at 21:00 ET. The notional turnover was inconsistent with price action, with no major spikes accompanying key price moves. This divergence weakens the conviction of the bearish breakdown and suggests the move may be more profit-taking than a sustained trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $3.644 (00:45 ET) to $3.859 (09:45 ET), the 61.8% retracement level is around $3.786, which the price tested at 11:15–11:30 ET before declining again. On the daily timeframe, the 50% retracement level from the $3.33–3.80 range is around $3.57, a key long-term support that could be tested if the current decline continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish breakdown and RSI oversold condition, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-term long entry at the $3.71–3.72 range with a stop-loss just below $3.683. A target could be placed at $3.80–3.81 based on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the Bollinger Band upper boundary. The low volume during the breakdown suggests that this trade may require confirmation from a strong bullish candle above $3.799.