POLJPY Market Overview: Volatility, Key Resistance, and Momentum Clues

Summary
• Price surged to a 24-hour high of ¥28.77 before retracing to ¥27.92, showing choppy intraday momentum.
• Volume spiked at key turning points, especially during the ¥27.69 low and ¥28.76 high.
• RSI and MACD suggest mixed signals of overbought levels and a weakening bullish trend.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at ¥27.1 at 12:00 ET − 1 and hit an intraday high of ¥28.77 before closing at ¥27.92 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour trading volume reached 136,967.7 and total turnover amounted to ¥3,754,045. The pair experienced a volatile 24-hour session with multiple reversals and sharp corrections.

Structure & Formations

POLJPY displayed several reversal and continuation patterns within the 15-minute chart. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged after the ¥28.76 high, followed by a sharp correction. A bullish harami appeared during the recovery from ¥27.69 to ¥27.82, indicating potential short-term consolidation. A key support level appears to be forming around ¥27.66, with a resistance cluster at ¥28.10–28.20.

Doji and Reversal Patterns

A long-legged doji formed at ¥28.27 during the early morning hours, suggesting indecision between buyers and sellers. This coincided with a failed attempt to push above ¥28.50, indicating a potential short-term topping pattern.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed multiple times, indicating a volatile and choppy trend. The 20SMA was last at ¥27.96, while the 50SMA sat at ¥28.03. On the daily chart, the 50DMA was at ¥27.85, with the 100DMA at ¥27.72 and the 200DMA at ¥27.69—suggesting that the price is now slightly above its long-term averages.

MACD & RSI

The 12, 26, 9 MACD line crossed into bearish territory after the ¥28.76 high, with a bearish histogram forming around ¥28.40. RSI-14 showed overbought conditions near ¥28.70 and overbought divergence at ¥28.50, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. RSI currently sits near 50, indicating neutral conditions and potential for both bullish and bearish continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the ¥27.69–28.77 range, with the price trading near the upper band during the ¥28.50–28.76 highs and near the lower band at ¥27.69. A contraction phase was noted between ¥27.82–27.91, suggesting a potential reversal could be on the horizon.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume was highest during the ¥27.69–28.77 price swing, with a significant spike at ¥28.76 (¥2,704.3 notional). A divergence between price and volume was observed at ¥27.82–27.91, where price rose but volume declined, suggesting weaker conviction in the move. The overall volume profile supports the idea of a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the ¥27.69–28.77 swing show a 38.2% retracement at ¥28.23 and a 61.8% level at ¥27.94. The current price of ¥27.92 is very close to the 61.8% retracement, suggesting a potential support zone ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the overbought RSI readings observed at ¥28.50–28.76, a backtest strategy could consider shorting the pair when RSI-14 exceeds 70, with a 5-day holding period to capture the expected mean reversion. While the default overbought threshold of 70 appears valid, adjusting this threshold (e.g., to 65) may improve signal accuracy given the high volatility. Confirming the exact ticker symbol (e.g., “POLJPY” vs. a different identifier) will ensure accurate RSI data retrieval for the backtest.