Political Instability and Legal Uncertainty in Côte d’Ivoire: Implications for Foreign Investment

Côte d’Ivoire, a linchpin of economic growth in Francophone West Africa, faces a critical juncture as political instability and legal uncertainty threaten to undermine its hard-won development gains. The recent disqualification of Tidjane Thiam, a prominent opposition leader and former Credit Suisse CEO, from the 2025 presidential race has intensified fears of a politicized legal system and eroded trust in electoral governance. This development, coupled with broader political tensions, raises urgent questions about the country’s ability to sustain foreign direct investment (FDI) and maintain its status as a regional economic hub.

The Thiam Disqualification: A Catalyst for Political Tensions

Tidjane Thiam’s disqualification by an Ivorian court in May 2025, based on his 1987 acquisition of French citizenship, has sparked accusations of systemic bias against opposition figures. Despite renouncing French citizenship in early 2025 to qualify as a candidate, the court ruled that his revocation occurred too late to be recognized for the electoral roll [2]. Critics argue this decision reflects a pattern of using legal mechanisms to marginalize political rivals, echoing past controversies that have weakened democratic institutions [1]. Thiam’s supporters, who rallied under the slogan “Thithi President!” in June 2025, accuse President Alassane Ouattara of orchestrating a path to a fourth term, a claim Ouattara’s administration denies [1].

This episode underscores a broader erosion of electoral credibility in Côte d’Ivoire. The country’s 2020 constitutional reforms, which allowed Ouattara to extend his tenure, have already drawn international criticism for undermining democratic norms [3]. The disqualification of Thiam—a candidate with global financial expertise and a reputation for reform—risks further polarizing the electorate and fueling unrest, particularly in a nation still scarred by the 2011 civil war [3].

Economic Resilience vs. Political Risk

Côte d’Ivoire’s economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with GDP growth projected at 6.4% in 2025, driven by agriculture, services, and infrastructure investments [1]. The government’s National Development Plan (2021–2025) aims to diversify the economy and attract FDI through reforms in public administration, taxation, and energy [2]. Notably, the country has secured significant investments in renewable energy and gas exploration, positioning itself as a regional energy hub [2].

However, political instability poses a direct threat to this progress. A 2025 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns that legal uncertainty and election-related tensions could deter foreign investors, who prioritize predictable governance frameworks [4]. The disqualification of Thiam, coupled with baseless coup rumors and administrative delays, has already rattled business confidence. For instance, the European Chamber of Commerce in Abidjan reported a 12% decline in investor inquiries in Q2 2025, citing “heightened political risks” as a primary concern [4].

Sectoral Shifts and Investor Sentiment

While Côte d’Ivoire remains a magnet for FDI in agriculture and energy, political instability is reshaping investor priorities. Sectors perceived as less sensitive to political volatility—such as infrastructure and technology—are gaining traction. For example, Africa Global Logistics’ €60 million investment in 2024, focused on port modernization, proceeded despite political tensions, reflecting confidence in the government’s long-term infrastructure agenda [1]. Conversely, investments in extractive industries have slowed, with firms like TotalEnergies delaying projects due to concerns over regulatory unpredictability [4].

Comparative analysis with Francophone West Africa reveals a regional trend of political risk deterring FDI. In Togo and Guinea, similar patterns of electoral manipulation and military coups have led to FDI declines of 18% and 22%, respectively, between 2020 and 2024 [3]. Côte d’Ivoire’s situation, while not as severe, shares these risks. A 2025 survey by the African Development Bank found that 43% of investors in Côte d’Ivoire view political stability as their “top concern,” surpassing economic factors like inflation and exchange rates [4].

Legal Precedents and Regional Context

Côte d’Ivoire’s legal framework, while aligned with international norms, struggles with enforcement. The government has streamlined procedures for foreign arbitral awards and digitized land administration systems, yet bureaucratic delays persist [2]. This contrasts with regional peers like Senegal, where judicial reforms have improved investor confidence. In Francophone West Africa, countries with stronger electoral governance—such as Ghana and Nigeria—have attracted 30% higher FDI inflows than those with weaker institutions [3].

The disqualification of Thiam also highlights a legal precedent: the use of citizenship laws to disqualify opposition candidates. This mirrors tactics seen in Togo, where constitutional amendments in 2024 eliminated direct presidential elections, cementing President Gnassingbé’s power [3]. Such precedents reinforce the view that legal systems in Francophone West Africa are increasingly politicized, deterring investors who rely on impartial dispute resolution.

Conclusion: A Test of Governance and Resilience

Côte d’Ivoire’s ability to navigate the 2025 election without further destabilization will be a litmus test for its economic future. While the country’s structural reforms and growth projections remain compelling, political instability and legal uncertainty pose a significant drag on investor sentiment. The disqualification of Thiam has exposed vulnerabilities in electoral governance, raising questions about the sustainability of Côte d’Ivoire’s economic model.

For foreign investors, the path forward requires a nuanced assessment of risk. Sectors with long-term strategic value—such as renewable energy and infrastructure—may offer resilience, but short-term volatility is inevitable. As the October 2025 election approaches, the international community and domestic stakeholders must advocate for transparent governance to preserve Côte d’Ivoire’s economic momentum.

Source:
[1] Political Tension in Côte d’Ivoire [https://www.cfr.org/blog/political-tension-cote-divoire]
[2] 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Côte d’Ivoire [https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/cote-divoire]
[3] Africa's 2025 Elections: A Test of Credibility to Uphold [https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2025-elections/]
[4] Thiam delisting could rattle Côte d’Ivoire business confidence [https://www.semafor.com/article/05/09/2025/thiam-delisting-could-rattle-cte-divoire-business-confidence]