Polish Equities: The Centrist Turn to Stability and Growth

The 2025 Polish presidential election has delivered a pivotal shift toward centrist stability, with Rafal Trzaskowski’s projected victory signaling a departure from years of institutional gridlock and anti-EU rhetoric. For investors, this marks a rare opportunity to capitalize on reduced political risk and sector-specific growth catalysts, particularly in technology, renewable energy, and consumer discretionary sectors. Poland’s alignment with pro-EU policies and fiscal pragmatism now positions its equity markets—long overshadowed by geopolitical noise—as a prime destination for global capital.

Political Risk Reduction: The Trzaskowski Effect

Trzaskowski’s victory over nationalist rivals like Karol Nawrocki and Slawomir Mentzen ends the era of institutional deadlock orchestrated by outgoing President Andrzej Duda of the PiS party. Duda’s repeated vetoes of judicial reforms and EU compliance measures had frozen Poland’s access to €37 billion in stalled EU recovery funds, a lifeline now set to flow freely under a Trzaskowski administration.

The new president’s pro-EU stance also reduces the risk of EU sanctions over judicial independence and migration policies, stabilizing the geopolitical environment. With Poland’s NATO membership and strategic role in countering Russian influence reaffirmed, foreign investors can now focus on fundamentals rather than political volatility.

Sector-Specific Opportunities: Where to Deploy Capital Now

1. Technology: EU Compliance Meets Innovation

Trzaskowski’s government prioritizes regulatory alignment with EU standards, a boon for Polish tech firms navigating cross-border data flows and digital infrastructure projects. Getin Holding (GHLD.WA), a fintech leader in payments and digital banking, stands to benefit from EU-backed innovation grants. Its 35% YoY revenue growth since 2023 positions it as a prime beneficiary of Poland’s digital transformation.

2. Renewable Energy: Unlocking the Green Transition

The €37 billion EU recovery fund will disproportionately flow into green energy projects, with Enea (ENEA.WA)—Poland’s largest utility—poised to dominate. The company aims to triple its renewable capacity by 2030, a plan now backed by EU subsidies and Trzaskowski’s climate agenda. Enea’s 12% undervaluation relative to European peers and 5% dividend yield make it a compelling buy.

3. Consumer Discretionary: A Post-GDPR Consumption Boom

With EU regulatory alignment comes consumer confidence. LPP (LPP.WA), a fast-fashion retailer with a 40% market share in Eastern Europe, will benefit from stable trade policies and rising disposable incomes. Its 15% YoY sales growth in 2024—despite economic headwinds—hints at upside potential as geopolitical risks fade.

The WIG20: Poland’s Undervalued Equity Benchmark

The WIG20, Poland’s leading equity index, trades at a 12% discount to its 5-year average P/E ratio despite holding companies like PKO BP (PBKP.WA), a banking giant with a 2.5% dividend yield, and PZU (PZU.WA), Europe’s third-largest insurer. Trzaskowski’s victory could narrow this gap as foreign investors return.

Immediate Investment Actions

• Buy the WIG20 ETF (WIG20): Capture broad exposure to Poland’s rebound.
• Target sector leaders: Accumulate Enea (ENEA.WA) for renewables, Getin (GHLD.WA) for fintech, and LPP (LPP.WA) for consumer discretionary.
• Hedge with infrastructure funds: The DEPA Poland Infrastructure Fund (DEPA.INFRA) offers exposure to EU-funded projects like the Baltic-Adriatic railway.

Conclusion: Act Now Before the Rally

Poland’s political realignment is a once-in-a-decade opportunity. With EU funds unlocking and geopolitical risks dissipating, the WIG20 and sector leaders are primed for a multi-year growth cycle. Investors who act swiftly can secure positions in a market where valuations remain depressed but fundamentals are strengthening. This is not just a bet on Poland—it’s a bet on Europe’s next growth frontier.

Prime time to position: Now.