The policy fog is casting a shadow over Wall Street! JPMorgan warns that US stocks could be in trouble in March.

U.S. stocks will struggle in early March and then rebound later in the spring as the economy data remains weak, says Ilan Benhamou of JPMorgan. The S&P 500 has lagged international markets this year due to uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs, immigration and layoff policies, as well as the federal government's policies under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk. Benhamou, who sells stock derivatives, wrote in a note to clients this week: "In the short term, the situation is too messy for the market to break through, and I think the market is stuck." The layoff news from earnings calls and the chain reaction of the DOGE team's actions will add more pressure to the macro situation, while consumer surveys are expected to decline and the inflation issue remains. Benhamou said that stocks need to reach a level where "the technicals look shuffled and oversold." "Retail will be exhausted, and CTA will be exhausted." He said the S&P 500 will then rebound in late March and early April. "Liquidity improves, macro excesses are eliminated, earnings continue to show U.S. corporate resilience, losses stop, and retail comes back into buying mode." At the moment, Nvidia's earnings are not hurt, but not supported much. Tariff risks and chaos still exist, which depresses overall risk sentiment. The seasonal weakness in March makes the outlook for the market in the coming weeks challenging. Benhamou said: "In the medium term, I believe the S&P 500 will move higher and U.S. bond yields will decline."