Poland’s Evolving Logistics and E-Commerce Landscape: Strategic Diversification and Market Positioning in Last-Mile Delivery

Poland’s e-commerce and logistics sectors are undergoing a transformative phase in 2025, driven by surging digital adoption, cross-border trade, and innovations in last-mile delivery. As the country’s e-commerce market is projected to reach USD 24.76 billion in 2025—up from €21 billion in 2023—and grow at a compound annual rate of 8.59% through 2030 [2], the competitive dynamics among logistics players are intensifying. At the heart of this evolution lies the strategic recalibration of key players like Allegro and InPost, whose decisions are reshaping market positioning and unlocking long-term value.

Allegro’s Strategic Shift and the Resilience of InPost

Allegro, Poland’s dominant e-commerce platform, has initiated a strategic pivot to reduce reliance on InPost, its long-time logistics partner. By redirecting over 30% of its parcel volume to its proprietary Allegro OneBox network, the company aims to strengthen control over the customer experience and reduce costs [4]. While this shift initially threatened to disrupt InPost’s dominance, the impact on its Q2 2025 volumes was minimal—less than 2%—thanks to InPost’s entrenched customer loyalty and broad merchant base [1].

InPost, however, is countering this challenge through aggressive expansion. The company’s out-of-home delivery network now spans 88,000+ points, with automated parcel machines (APMs) growing by 31% year-on-year to 53,287 units in Poland alone [1]. This infrastructure ensures that 70% of the Polish market remains under InPost’s control, even as Allegro diversifies its logistics strategy. Meanwhile, InPost’s cross-border acquisitions—such as Yodel in the UK and Sending in Iberia—are diversifying its revenue streams and solidifying its position as a pan-European logistics leader [3].

Cross-Border E-Commerce: A New Frontier for Logistics Innovation

The rise of cross-border e-commerce in Poland is further amplifying demand for agile logistics solutions. By 2025, 39% of Polish consumers engaged in international online shopping, nearly tripling the figure from 2024 [2]. This trend is fueled by Polish shoppers’ trust in foreign brands, streamlined return policies, and the convenience of mobile commerce—64% of online transactions in 2024 occurred via smartphones [2].

For logistics providers, this presents both challenges and opportunities. Last-mile delivery remains a critical bottleneck, particularly in rural areas where traditional networks struggle with cost efficiency. InPost’s APMs and Allegro’s OneBox lockers are addressing this gap, but the sector is also attracting global players like DHL and FedEx, which are leveraging automation and electric vehicle fleets to optimize delivery times [5]. The Poland freight and logistics market, valued at €34.56 billion in 2025, is projected to grow at a 4.11% CAGR through 2033, driven by cross-border demand and infrastructure investments [5].

Strategic Diversification: The Path to Long-Term Value

The evolving landscape underscores the importance of strategic diversification for logistics players. InPost’s expansion into cross-border markets and its focus on cost-efficient APMs exemplify this approach. By acquiring Yodel and Sending, InPost has not only diversified its geographic footprint but also enhanced its ability to manage complex international supply chains [3]. Similarly, Allegro’s investment in OneBox reflects a dual strategy: reducing dependency on third-party logistics while capturing a share of the last-mile delivery market.

For investors, the key differentiator lies in a company’s ability to adapt to shifting consumer preferences and technological advancements. The proliferation of 5G networks, for instance, is enabling real-time tracking and dynamic route optimization, which are critical for maintaining customer satisfaction in a competitive market [2]. Additionally, sustainability initiatives—such as InPost’s use of electric vehicles and Allegro’s carbon-neutral delivery options—are becoming essential for long-term competitiveness [5].

Conclusion: A Market Poised for Innovation

Poland’s logistics and e-commerce sectors are at a pivotal juncture. While Allegro’s strategic shift has introduced new competitive pressures, it has also spurred innovation in last-mile delivery. InPost’s resilience, bolstered by its APM network and cross-border acquisitions, highlights the importance of infrastructure and customer-centric strategies. Meanwhile, the surge in cross-border e-commerce is creating a fertile ground for logistics players that can balance scalability with agility.

As the market matures, companies that prioritize technological integration, sustainable practices, and diversified revenue streams will be best positioned to capitalize on Poland’s robust growth trajectory. For investors, this dynamic environment offers compelling opportunities in a sector that is not only foundational to Poland’s digital economy but also a bellwether for Central Europe’s broader e-commerce evolution.

Source:
[1] InPost: Growth Story or Value Trap? [https://www.thewolfofharcourtstreet.com/p/inpost-growth-story-or-value-trap]
[2] Poland E-Commerce Market Size & Share Analysis [https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/poland-ecommerce-market]
[3] Poland Freight and Logistics Market Size & Share Analysis [https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/poland-freight-and-logistics-market]
[4] InPost S.A. (INPOY) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4818451-inpost-s-a-inpoy-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
[5] Poland Freight and Logistics Market 2025-2033 Trends [https://www.archivemarketresearch.com/reports/poland-freight-and-logistics-market-867612]