POL/Tether Market Overview: Bullish Momentum and Key Retest Levels in Focus

• POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at $0.1922 and closed at $0.1943, rising by 1.06% with a 24-hour high of $0.1976.
• Strong momentum emerged after 04:30 ET, with a 17.3% move to the 24-hour high by 12:45 ET, signaling short-term bullish energy.
• Volatility expanded during the morning surge, while volume surged to $5.85M at the peak, confirming the breakout.
• Price appears to consolidate near a key 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.1939–$0.1943 and faces resistance at $0.1950–$0.1955.
• RSI reached overbought territory by 12:45 ET, suggesting potential for profit-taking or pullbacks in the next 24 hours.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at $0.1922 on October 23 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1943 on October 24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of $0.1976. The pair recorded a total volume of 29,085,719.3 tokens and a notional turnover of $5,617,030.51 over the period. The price action was characterized by a sharp morning breakout followed by consolidation, with momentum and volume aligning during key upswings.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bullish breakout from a descending wedge pattern that formed during the early part of the session. A series of higher highs and higher lows emerged post 04:30 ET, capped by a strong bullish engulfing candle at the 12:45 ET session peak. The price then retested the $0.1943–$0.1939 area, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the $0.1976 high to the $0.1911 low. A doji appeared at the 14:30 ET session, hinting at potential exhaustion in the short-term upmove.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed to the upside since 05:45 ET, forming a bullish “golden cross” within the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is just beginning to cross above the 100-period MA, suggesting a potential medium-term bullish shift. The 200-period MA remains well below the current price, indicating no major bearish resistance at longer timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive at 05:30 ET and has remained in bullish territory, with the histogram showing increasing positive divergence. The RSI reached 66 by 11:30 ET and crossed into overbought territory (RSI ≥ 70) by 12:45 ET, suggesting short-term risks of a pullback. The indicator then corrected into neutral territory by 14:00 ET, indicating that traders may be taking profits after the morning breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 04:30 ET as the price broke above the upper Bollinger Band, reaching a 24-hour high of $0.1976. The bands have since widened and remain in a bullish expansionary phase. The price has re-entered the band range at $0.1943, indicating a potential pause in momentum. A close above the upper band may signal the start of a new bullish trend phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at $5.85M at 12:45 ET during the breakout phase, aligning with the highest 15-minute candle. The notional turnover increased to $1.13M at the same time, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between volume and price occurred during the consolidation phase at 14:00–15:00 ET, as the price declined while volume stayed relatively high. This may signal early signs of market uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.1943 has acted as a strong support during the consolidation phase. A retest of this area could offer another buying opportunity if the RSI remains in overbought but does not cross into exhaustion. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at $0.1929–$0.1935 is critical for near-term support. A break below this range could invalidate the current bullish narrative.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent RSI overbought levels and bullish momentum in POL/Tether, an RSI-based backtesting strategy could be applied to evaluate potential entry and exit points. For example, using a 14-period RSI and entering at a close above 70 with a stop-loss at the 50-level (RSI < 50) may capture short-term momentum-driven moves. This approach would align with the recent 12:45 ET breakout and could be backtested across the same 24-hour timeframe to assess profitability and risk.