POL/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped from $0.1775 to $0.1694 amid bearish momentum and high volume.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought levels earlier, but failed to confirm a sustained bullish move.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the last 24 hours with a 15-minute close at $0.1694.

The POL/Tether (POLUSDT) pair opened at $0.1775 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1694 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.1789 and a low of $0.1686. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 32.4 million, while notional turnover was approximately $5.7 million. The price action shows a clear bearish shift with a significant decline driven by heavy selling pressure, particularly after 16:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around $0.1700 and $0.1686, with a rejection observed at $0.1686 after an attempted test. Resistance is now likely redefining itself near $0.1750. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.1775 during the morning session, confirming a reversal in sentiment. Several doji patterns appeared between $0.1730 and $0.1750, suggesting indecision and potential consolidation ahead of further directional moves.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with price closing below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, forming a bearish death cross. The 100-period MA also sits below the 50-period MA, indicating a deteriorating trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped from overbought levels in the morning to a bearish zone, reaching a 24-hour low near 38. This suggests the bearish phase may continue unless a strong reversal candle forms. The divergence between price and RSI suggests caution for short-term traders.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 24 hours, with the bands widening from around $0.0003 to $0.0013. Price traded near the lower band at $0.1686, indicating extreme bearish pressure. This low volatility reading could signal a potential bounce or continuation of the downward trend, depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key turning points, particularly after 16:00 ET with a 24-hour high of over 3.2 million. The largest single 15-minute turnover occurred at 15:00 ET with a notional value of $557,000. Price and volume confirmed the bearish bias, with no clear divergence in the final hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent swing high at $0.1789 to the low at $0.1686 show a 61.8% retracement near $0.1737. Price is now testing this level on the 15-minute chart, which may act as a short-term support. The 50% retracement at $0.1736 has also held temporarily in the morning session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed Bullish Engulfing pattern, seen earlier in the session around $0.1775, aligns with the backtest strategy that targets this pattern. Historically, this pattern has shown a 50% success rate over a 5-day holding period, with potential gains of up to 12.5% but also losses of similar magnitude. While the current pattern was followed by a sharp reversal, this highlights the importance of incorporating additional filters, such as volume confirmation and RSI divergence, to improve accuracy. The backtest results suggest caution for investors using this pattern without supplementary indicators.