POL/Tether Market Overview

• POLUSDT opened at $0.238 and traded between $0.2345 and $0.2443 before closing at $0.2384.
• Momentum shifted from bullish in the early session to bearish toward the close.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a 20% price swing in the last 6 hours.
• Volume spiked in the 17:00–19:00 ET window, confirming a short-term pullback.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for a rebound.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened on 2025-10-09 at $0.2380, reaching a high of $0.2443 and a low of $0.2345, before closing at $0.2384 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 30,303,423.1 units, with a notional turnover of $7,222,615.5. The price action reveals a volatile session marked by a sharp intraday decline.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near $0.2375 during the overnight session, suggesting a short-term reversal. However, this was followed by a bearish abandonment of that level after a strong 15-minute candle closed at $0.2363. Key support is now at $0.2345, while $0.2385–$0.2400 represents immediate resistance. A doji near $0.2384 at the close indicates indecision and potential for further consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the downside around $0.2390–0.2395, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price has moved below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, with the 200-period (long-term) line acting as a critical support at approximately $0.2350. The bearish bias appears to be deepening.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence as the price made a higher high near $0.2412 while MACD formed a lower high, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory at 30 during the late session, suggesting a potential rebound. However, without a strong reversal candle, a bearish continuation into the $0.2345 support zone remains likely.

Bollinger Bands

The price tested the upper Bollinger band near $0.2412 before rolling back toward the lower band, closing near the 1.1 standard deviation level. Volatility has increased, with the bands widening over the past 6 hours. A break below the lower band would indicate heightened bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged between 17:00 and 19:00 ET, coinciding with the drop from $0.2430 to $0.2363. Turnover also spiked during this time, indicating strong participation. The divergence between price and turnover in the late session (lower turnover despite a lower close) suggests weakening conviction in the bearish move and may signal a short-term bottom forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from $0.2345 to $0.2443, the 61.8% retrace level is at $0.2382, which aligns closely with today’s close. A break below the 38.2% level at $0.2373 would target the next support at $0.2350. On the daily chart, the 50% retrace level is at $0.2370, a critical psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at the close of a bullish engulfing pattern that forms near key Fibonacci levels and exits after a 15-minute bearish reversal candle forms or after a 5% target is hit. This would align with today’s price behavior, where the engulfing at $0.2375 was followed by a sharp bearish correction. The strategy would also include a stop-loss below the 38.2% retrace level to manage downside risk. This approach leverages both price pattern recognition and Fibonacci levels to filter for high-probability entries in volatile crypto markets.