POL/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour Swing and Volatility

• POL/Tether opened at $0.2007 and closed at $0.1978 after a 24-hour session marked by bearish consolidation and increased volatility.
• The price moved between $0.1961 and $0.2013, with bearish momentum intensifying in the final hours of trading.
• Volume spiked in the early morning (ET) with a 15-minute candle printing a 0.1961 low, indicating heavy selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest oversold conditions and negative momentum, hinting at potential reversal or continuation.
• Bollinger Band contraction in the pre-dawn hours gave way to a sharp expansion and a bearish breakout.

Price Action and Structure

POLUSDT opened at $0.2007 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1978 at the same time the following day. Over the 24-hour window, it fluctuated between a high of $0.2013 and a low of $0.1961, with a final close near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the key bearish leg from $0.2013 to $0.1961. A long bearish shadow on the final 15-minute candle suggests a potential reversal may be forming at the lower boundary of the 24-hour range. A bearish engulfing pattern also formed at 19:30 ET when the candle opened at $0.1984 and closed at $0.1961, signaling strong selling pressure.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, price spent much of the session below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Band width, saw a notable contraction in the early hours of 2025-10-29 before expanding as price broke down below the lower band with a candle that opened at $0.1984 and closed at $0.1961. This expansion may indicate the end of consolidation and a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Momentum and Sentiment

The RSI indicator dipped below 30 in the pre-dawn hours of 2025-10-29, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, the MACD remained bearish with a declining histogram and a signal line that crossed below the MACD line, reinforcing the negative momentum. The divergence between the oversold RSI and bearish MACD suggests that while buyers are showing interest, they may lack the strength to reverse the trend. A potential reversal could be confirmed with a rejection at the $0.1961 level.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30 ET candle, printing a large bearish move that closed at $0.1961. This was the highest volume candle of the session at 943,799.7 units and was followed by a bearish follow-through in the next few candles. Notional turnover also showed a spike during this period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. Price and volume aligned during this phase, with no divergence observed. The increased volume during the breakdown suggests a higher probability of continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key bearish swing from $0.2013 to $0.1961, price appears to have found a potential short-term support at the 61.8% level. A bounce from this level would suggest a temporary reversal, while a break below could test the next support near $0.1955. On the 15-minute chart, price bounced near the 50% level of the swing, but failed to hold the 61.8% level, indicating that bears may still control the short-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy referenced earlier involves using the RSI as a signal for entry. In this case, the RSI dipped below 30 early on 2025-10-29, making it a candidate for a long entry. However, due to the bearish bias confirmed by the MACD and the strong volume-based breakdown, the signal may be more indicative of a reversal failure rather than a bullish setup. To refine the strategy, one could consider only RSI < 30 signals that occur with bullish divergence or volume confirmation. Without accurate historical RSI data for POLUSDT, this backtest cannot be fully executed.