POL/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• POLUSDT declined by 0.34% over the past 24 hours, closing near key support at 0.2514–0.2520.
• Volume surged to 7.3 million at 19:45 ET during a sharp rally, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
• RSI remains neutral at ~50, while MACD signals bearish divergence as price climbs and momentum lags.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction before the 19:45 ET breakout, signaling rising volatility.
• On-balance volume diverged with price during the 18:00–19:00 ET sell-off, hinting at potential bearish continuation.

24-Hour Performance Summary

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.2516 at 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of 0.2590 at 20:30 ET, and fell to a low of 0.2506 at 16:15 ET before closing at 0.2628 as of 07:15 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume across 24 hours reached 72,160,153.85 with a total notional turnover of $18,202,325.67, showing heightened activity during the late-night and early-morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The chart displayed a key bullish breakout at 0.2590 on the 15-minute chart, followed by a consolidation phase between 0.2575–0.2627. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET, closing at 0.2542 after opening at 0.2523. Later, a bearish harami pattern was observed at 18:15 ET, with a close of 0.2520 after a high of 0.2553. These patterns highlight volatility and mixed sentiment as the price bounced between 0.2514 and 0.2645.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed multiple times, forming a bullish crossover just before 20:00 ET, followed by a bearish crossover at 01:30 ET. This indicates a tug-of-war between short-term bullish and bearish forces. For the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at 0.2532 while the 200-period SMA is at 0.2475, placing the current price well above both and suggesting a bullish trend.

MACD showed bearish divergence as the price climbed but momentum lagged, especially during the 19:00–02:30 ET period. The RSI remained in neutral territory but dipped below 50 at 05:30 ET, hinting at a potential correction.

Volatility and Volume Dynamics

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction between 18:00 and 19:30 ET, followed by a sharp expansion and breakout at 19:45 ET when the price surged to 0.2542. Price closed near the upper band, indicating a possible overbought condition.

Volume spiked at 19:45 ET with 1,019,044.8 contracts, the second-highest of the day, confirming the breakout. However, turnover dropped during the 18:00–19:00 ET decline, suggesting a divergence and potential bearish follow-through.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute swing from 0.2506 to 0.2590 showed the current price hovering near the 61.8% level (~0.2585), a key resistance. If this level breaks, the next target could be the 78.6% level (~0.2610–0.2620).

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position on the close of a bullish engulfing pattern with volume exceeding 1 million and price above the 20-period SMA. Exit is triggered when the 50-period SMA crosses below the 20-period SMA. Using this rule on the 19:45 ET candle would have triggered an entry at 0.2542, with an exit at 02:30 ET at 0.2620, yielding a profit of 3.07%. This aligns with the observed price action, reinforcing the strategy's validity under similar conditions.