POL: Critical $0.15 Decision Point – Uptrend Continuation or Short-Term Correction?

Polygon (POL) has reached a pivotal moment at the $0.15 level, a price floor that has become a battleground for bulls and bears in late 2025 and early 2026. This level, once a base for prior breakouts, now serves as a critical decision point: Will it hold as support, enabling a retest of $0.18 and beyond, or will it collapse, triggering a deeper correction toward $0.10? To answer this, we must dissect the technical and on-chain signals shaping POL's near-term trajectory.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum vs. Stabilization Hopes

The 4-hour chart paints a mixed picture. A rising wedge pattern has accelerated a drawdown after a rejection near $0.18, signaling bearish momentum. Key technical indicators reinforce this: the Money Flow Index (MFI) at 54.44 is trending downward, reflecting fading buyer inflows, while the RSI has dipped to 46.39, confirming that sellers are gaining control.

However, the $0.15 level itself is not without defensive potential. Historical price action shows this zone previously acted as a base before breakouts, and a successful rebound could rekindle bullish momentum toward $0.18. Crucially, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) remains at $0.22, a distant but critical threshold for long-term trend validation. For now, the immediate focus is on whether buyers can defend $0.15 and reassert dominance.

On-Chain Metrics and Fundamentals: A Tale of Two Narratives

On-chain data adds nuance. In early 2026, POL saw a 18.12% surge to $0.151, erasing December's losses and driven by 114.6 million in 24-hour buy volume. This accumulation was bolstered by Polygon's "Open Money Stack" initiative and a potential acquisition of Coinme, a Bitcoin ATM operator, which positioned the platform as a bridge between traditional and blockchain finance.

Yet, this optimism faces headwinds. By January 12, 2026, analysts warned that a breakdown below $0.15 could trigger a retracement toward $0.10. The RSI's climb to 77 near overbought territory in early January suggests short-term overextension, while the DMI-SMI and TSI indicators hint at volatile corrections ahead.

Risk-Reward Scenarios: Two Paths from $0.15

Scenario 1: Uptrend ContinuationIf buyers defend $0.15, the immediate target is $0.18, with a secondary retest of $0.165. A successful hold could reignite momentum toward the 200 SMA at $0.22, though this remains a long-term goal. The risk-reward here is asymmetric: a 10% move to $0.165 from $0.15 offers a 7% gain, with a stop-loss below $0.138 limiting downside to ~12%.

Scenario 2: Short-Term CorrectionA breakdown below $0.15 opens the door to a test of the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $0.15 (a self-fulfilling prophecy for bears) and potentially $0.10. While this scenario is bearish, it's not terminal-Polygon's fundamentals, including its Open Money Stack vision, remain intact. A pullback to $0.10 could even present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, assuming the broader crypto market stabilizes.

Conclusion: A Fork in the Road

Polygon's $0.15 level is a microcosm of the broader crypto market's volatility. Technically, the asset faces bearish headwinds but retains defensive support. On-chain activity and fundamentals suggest resilience, yet risks of a short-term correction persist. Investors must weigh these factors carefully: a bullish bet on $0.15's hold requires conviction in Polygon's ecosystem and patience for a multi-month play, while a bearish stance demands caution against overextending short positions in a market prone to rapid reversals.

As always, the key is to stay nimble. Whether POL trends upward or corrects, the $0.15 level will remain a litmus test for the token's near-term health.