Plummeting Jobless Claims Show Warm-Up Signs In Labor Market, But Can It Calm Recession Worries?
AInvestThursday, Aug 8, 2024 9:46 am ET
1min read

The newly released initial jobless claims show that the number of Americans filing new applications for benefits fell sharply last week, marking the largest drop in a year and indicating a warming of the job market.

The newest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of first-time unemployment benefit claims for the week ending August 3rd was 2.33 million, lower than the expected 2.4 million and lower than the previous value of 2.49 million.

However, as of the week ending August 3rd, the number of continued unemployment benefit claims rose to 18.75 million, reaching a new high since November 2021. The four-week average number of continued claims also set a new high.

The data shows that the decline in unemployment claims was due to a decrease in applications in states such as Michigan, Missouri, and Texas, which had seen a significant increase in applications in recent weeks.

In addition, a series of economic data released by the United States last week showed that the labor market is continuing to cool down, especially the employment data in July, which has caused financial markets to worry that the economy may be heading toward a recession.

After the first application data was released on August 3rd, it may alleviate concerns about the labor market cooling down too quickly. Some analysts think the decrease in first-time applications may help to reassure the market that the labor force is just returning to the pre-pandemic state.

"The data bear watching for signals about a more material weakening in the labor market going forward, which would have implications for Fed policy, "Carl B. Weinberg and Rubeela Farooqi of High-Frequency Economics said in a note. "They signal modest economic slowing, not contraction!"

Meanwhile, most Federal Reserve analysts still expect that Federal Reserve policymakers will start to moderately cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the meeting in mid-September.

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