Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• Price formed a key bullish engulfing pattern at 4.081, signaling potential short-term reversal.
• Volatility expanded between 4.02–4.26, with a sharp drop in the final 6 hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while volume surged near 4.02–4.04 during late ET.
• Price closed near 4.048 after opening at 4.085, with 164,500 units traded.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the final 4 hours, suggesting low near-term momentum.

Opening Narrative and Summary

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.085 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4.268 and a low of 4.020, before closing at 4.048 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total traded volume was 1,645,000 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 6,569,655 TRY, based on the OHLC averages.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key bullish engulfing pattern at the 4.081 level, formed between 22:45 ET and 23:00 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal. A series of small-bodied candles emerged after 04:00 ET, indicating indecision and fading momentum. The 4.020 level acted as a strong support, holding during multiple tests in the final 6 hours. A doji formed at 09:00 ET at 4.055, suggesting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. The price structure showed a bearish breakdown from a 4.17–4.26 channel between 20:00 ET and 05:00 ET, which shifted the sentiment to the downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a steep bearish alignment, with the price consistently below both. By 05:00 ET, the 50-period MA had crossed below the 20-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day MAs were not provided, but the 15-minute behavior suggests a continuation of the bearish trend in the absence of strong buyers.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after 19:00 ET and remained bearish, with a low divergence forming between the price and the indicator after 04:00 ET, hinting at potential consolidation or a minor rebound. The RSI entered the oversold zone at 05:30 ET, staying there until the close, which may indicate short-term buying opportunities for traders. However, the lack of a corresponding volume spike at that time weakens the strength of the signal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the last 4 hours of the session, particularly between 09:00 ET and 13:00 ET, signaling a period of low volatility and potential consolidation. Price action remained within the bands throughout the period, though it brushed the upper band twice—once at 4.268 and again at 4.207—suggesting some short-term resistance. The lower band was tested at 4.020, reinforcing the significance of this level as a potential floor.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased notably near the 4.020–4.040 range, particularly around 15:45 ET when the price broke below the 4.06 level on heavy volume. This confirmed the bearish breakdown. In contrast, volume decreased during the final 2 hours, even as the RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting a lack of conviction in potential short-term bounces. Notional turnover peaked at 4.044 during the final candle, indicating a possible accumulation phase ahead of a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level was at 4.171, which was tested and rejected multiple times. The 61.8% level sat near 4.088, which was the key support in the final hours. The major 15-minute swing from 4.268 to 4.020 formed a 0.618 retracement at 4.127, which acted as a minor resistance. Daily Fibonacci levels were not available, but the 15-minute retracement levels suggest a possible bounce from 4.020 to 4.06.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed technical behavior—particularly the bearish engulfing pattern, bearish MACD divergence, and RSI entering the oversold zone—a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias entry near the 4.06–4.08 range with a stop loss above 4.10 and a take profit at 4.02. This approach would aim to capture a continuation of the bearish move observed after the 22:45 ET engulfing reversal and the breakdown below 4.10. The Fibonacci retracement at 4.088 and the Bollinger Band contraction suggest a high-probability setup for a short-term bearish trade, especially when volume and momentum indicators align.