Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) Market Overview – 2025-09-19

• PLUMETRY declined to 4.595 by 12:00 ET, down from 4.974, with bearish momentum and strong volume in the second half of the day.
• Volatility remained elevated as price traded between 4.615 and 4.913, but failed to retest key support levels.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 4.595, suggesting a potential rebound, though volume divergence raised caution.
• Bollinger Bands showed price near the lower band during the final hours, hinting at exhaustion of the bearish move.
• 15-minute chart patterns like hammers and dojis emerged near 4.6 and 4.7, suggesting indecision and possible reversal cues.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) traded at 4.595, down from an open of 4.974 the previous day. The 24-hour range extended between 4.615 and 4.913, with total volume of 3,933,465 units and turnover of ~20,295,313 TRL. Price action has been bearish across most of the day, with notable selloff in the early morning hours and a slow recovery in the afternoon. Key support levels at 4.65 and 4.6 appear to be under test, while resistance at 4.75 and 4.8 remains unchallenged.

The 15-minute chart revealed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and a morning doji at 4.7, hinting at potential reversal in the early hours. However, a late morning decline below 4.75 and a strong bearish close at 4.595 signaled ongoing downward pressure. Support at 4.65 saw a partial rejection but failed to hold against increasing volume, particularly after 05:00 ET. The price has since traded in a tight range between 4.615 and 4.65, with no clear breakout.

Macroeconomic indicators such as RSI (Relative Strength Index) have fallen into oversold territory, below 30, suggesting exhaustion of the bearish move. However, divergences between price and volume at 4.64 and 4.66 cast doubt on a near-term reversal. The MACD histogram has remained bearish, with a negative crossover in the early morning hours that has not yet reversed. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate widening during the decline and a contraction toward 4.615, typical of a consolidation phase. Price currently rests near the lower band, indicating potential for a bounce.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key 15-minute swing high of 4.913 to the low of 4.595 reveal 38.2% at 4.75 and 61.8% at 4.65. Price has bounced off the 61.8% level twice but failed to hold above 4.75, reinforcing that 4.65 is a critical near-term support zone. A break below 4.6 could extend the move to 4.55, but a close above 4.65 would likely reignite short-term bullish momentum. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remain bearishly aligned, with price below both and a bearish crossover intact.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy focuses on a trend-following approach using a 50-period and 200-period moving average crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI divergence as a filter for potential reversals. The hypothesis is that a bearish crossover of the 50-period below the 200-period, confirmed by RSI entering oversold territory and a bearish engulfing pattern, increases the probability of a short-term continuation of the downtrend. Given the current price action, the system would likely maintain a short bias unless a strong bullish reversal pattern emerges above 4.65 with a concurrent RSI rebound and bullish volume confirmation.