Plow Ahead! Small Farms, Big Gains: Why Ag Stocks Are About to Explode

The winds of change are blowing through America's heartland, and investors who ignore them are missing out on one of the biggest opportunities of the decade. Under Secretary Brooke Rollins, the USDA has unleashed a historic shift in agricultural policy that's turning small family farms into growth engines—and agribusiness stocks like Deere (DE) and the Land O'Lakes parent company into must-own plays. Let's dig into the dirt and see why this sector is about to bloom.

The Policy Tailwinds: Farmers First & SNAP's Game-Changing Waiver
On her recent Nebraska tour, Secretary Rollins dropped two bombshells: the “Farmers First” initiative and the first-ever SNAP waiver excluding soda and energy drinks. These policies aren't just symbolic—they're economic grenades set to detonate demand for commodities and rural infrastructure.

Starting in 2026, the SNAP waiver will redirect billions of taxpayer dollars toward nutritious foods, boosting demand for staples like dairy, grains, and produce. Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen called it “a win for every family farm”—and he's right. With six states already copying Nebraska's model, this bipartisan move ensures a long-term tailwind for agribusiness.

The Farmers First initiative is equally transformative. By streamlining USDA programs, slashing red tape for credit access, and redefining farm sizes to include smaller operations, Rollins is giving family farms the tools to compete. “This is about survival,” Rollins said during her visit to Cargill Bioscience. “We're putting farmers at the center of everything we do.”

Why Deere & Co. (DE) Is the Tractor of This Rally
Deere is the poster child of this shift. With Farmers First simplifying loan access and boosting farm profitability, small operators will finally afford the company's high-margin equipment. The SNAP waiver also means more demand for crops, pushing farmers to invest in tech like precision farming tools—Deere's bread and butter.

Notice the stock's consolidation? This is a buying opportunity. Rollins' policies are set to unleash a wave of demand just as Deere's new electric tractors hit the market.

Land O'Lakes' Silent Power Play
While Land O'Lakes itself is private, its parent, Dairy Farmers of America (DFA), benefits directly from the SNAP waiver's focus on dairy. The policy shift ensures steady demand for milk, cheese, and yogurt—products DFA supplies to giants like Walmart and Costco. Investors can access this via ETFs tracking agribusiness (more on that later).

The Dark Soil: USDA Staffing Cuts Threaten Progress
Beware the worms in this apple. Rollins' USDA has slashed 15,000 jobs via “deferred resignation” programs, gutting critical agencies like the Farm Service Agency (FSA). With 30% of IT staff gone, digitizing loan applications has stalled—leaving farmers in paperwork purgatory.

The USDA's botched handling of pest control (see Florida's citrus crisis) shows how hollowing out expertise can backfire. “They're burning the candle at both ends,” says a former USDA insider. Still, the upside of Farmers First and SNAP outweighs these risks—if you pick the right stocks.

The ETFs to Plant Now
To capture this rally, forget picking individual stocks—go for the agribusiness ETFs that own the whole field.

1. VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO): The king of the sector, holding 26.6% in Deere and 50% of its assets in farm equipment and agrochemicals. MOO's underperformance (-8.5% YTD) is a gift.
2. iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI): Another Deere-heavy fund (26.6%) with exposure to fertilizer giants like Mosaic (MOS).
3. Global X AgTech ETF (KROP): Focuses on innovation—think AI-driven farming and biotech. DE is a 14.7% stake here.

MOO's lag is a buying signal. When rollouts of Farmers First kick in, this ETF will roar.

Final Call: Plow Ahead—Now
The writing is in the soil: small farms are the new frontier of agribusiness. Rollins' policies are structural wins for companies that serve them. Deere's equipment, DFA's dairy, and ETFs like MOO are all set to reap the harvest.

But don't dawdle. While staffing cuts are a speed bump, the USDA's pivot to family farms is irreversible. This is a generational call—buy now, and watch these stocks grow like weeds.

TheStreet's Jim Cramer is ready to invest. Are you?

DISCLAIMER: This is a fictionalized investment analysis for illustrative purposes only.