Plexus Plunges 9.35%—What’s Fueling the Sudden Sell-Off?

Summary
• PLXS shares cratered 9.35% intraday, trading at $121.31 as of 6:39 PM EDT.
• Earnings beat of $1.90/share (11% above estimates) failed to buoy the stock.
• Sector leader Jabil (JBL) fell 4.15%, amplifying market anxiety.
• Intraday range of $116.18–$127.54 highlights sharp volatility.
PLXS’ selloff defies its Q3 earnings outperformance, as broader IT supply chain weakness and revised analyst price targets weigh on sentiment. Despite strong margins and program wins, the stock’s collapse reflects sector-wide jitters and a lack of AI exposure in a hype-driven market.

Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Revenue Miss and Sector Weakness
PLXS’ 9.35% drop stems from a confluence of factors: while Q3 EPS of $1.90 beat estimates, revenue of $1.018B fell short of $1.021B expectations. Guidance for Q4, while slightly below Street forecasts, still assumes growth. However, the stock’s sharp decline aligns with broader IT supply chain sector weakness, as firms like Flex (FLEX) and Jabil (JBL) also slumped. Analysts at Raymond James noted PLXS’ lack of AI exposure—a sector tailwind—left it vulnerable to risk-off sentiment. Additionally, Needham cut its price target to $158 from $162, signaling caution ahead of fiscal 2026.

Electronic Components Sector Suffers as Jabil Drags Down Peers
The Electronic Components sector, represented by the S&P 500 Electronic Equipment & Instruments index, sank alongside PLXS. Jabil (JBL), the sector’s largest component, fell 4.15% on revised AI demand forecasts and lingering Tesla (TSLA) concerns. PLXS’ drop mirrors the sector’s pain, though its lack of AI exposure isolates it from peers like Jabil, which benefits from AI infrastructure growth. The sell-off underscores a shift in investor focus toward near-term cash flow over long-term program wins, despite PLXS’ 41 new manufacturing program wins worth $250M annually.

Options Playbook: Navigating PLXS’s Volatile Swing
• RSI: 37.53 (oversold)
• MACD: 0.427 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.866)
• 200D MA: $140.36 (above current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $132.13–$139.65 (current price near lower band)
PLXS is trading in a short-term bearish trend with long-term ranging, per Kline patterns. Key levels to watch: 30D support ($130.81–$131.00) and 200D resistance ($134.77–$135.96). The stock’s 9.35% intraday drop suggests a potential bounce from oversold RSI levels, but its 200D MA gap of $19+ remains a critical hurdle.
Top Option #1: PLXS20250815P120 (Put Option)
• Code: PLXS20250815P120
• Type: Put
• Strike: $120
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 41.85% (moderate)
• LVR: 30.32% (high)
• Delta: -0.409 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.005 (low decay)
• Gamma: 0.030 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 402 (liquid)
Payoff in 5% downside scenario (ST = $115.24): $5.24. This put offers high leverage for a modest price, ideal for short-term bearish bets.
Top Option #2: PLXS20250919P115 (Put Option)
• Code: PLXS20250919P115
• Type: Put
• Strike: $115
• Expiration: 2025-09-19
• IV: 33.10% (moderate)
• LVR: 39.32% (high)
• Delta: -0.287 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.018 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.021 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 455 (liquid)
Payoff in 5% downside scenario: $10.24. This put offers higher upside for deeper declines, with a longer expiration to capture volatility.
If $120 breaks, PLXS20250815P120 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider PLXS20250919C115 into a bounce above $127.54.

Backtest Plexus Stock Performance
The backtest of PLXS's performance after a -9% intraday plunge shows favorable results, with the 3-Day win rate at 57.59%, the 10-Day win rate at 58.81%, and the 30-Day win rate at 61.26%. This indicates that the stock tends to recover and even surpass its previous price levels in the short term following a significant drop.

PLXS Faces Crucial Crossroads—Here’s How to Position
PLXS’ selloff reflects sector jitters and a lack of AI-driven momentum, despite strong fundamentals. The stock’s 37.53 RSI suggests oversold conditions, but its 200D MA gap and broader IT supply chain weakness could prolong the decline. Investors should monitor Jabil (JBL, -4.15%) as a sector barometer and PLXS’ 2025-08-15 options expirations for near-term direction. A break below $116.18 (intraday low) could trigger deeper selling, while a rebound above $127.54 (intraday high) may rekindle buy-the-dip interest. For now, short-term bearish options like PLXS20250815P120 offer high leverage on a 5% downside scenario.