Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) Market Overview

• Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of 0.4146, with bearish momentum and declining volume confirming pressure.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed in early ET hours, suggesting short-term continuation of the downtrend.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 21:00 ET as the price dropped below a key support level near 0.5009.
• RSI and MACD both showed oversold readings, hinting at potential near-term exhaustion of selling pressure.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating high uncertainty and the possibility of either a rebound or further decline.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-11, Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) opened at 0.6493 and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.4146 before closing at 0.4178 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume reached 389.3 million, with notional turnover at $158.7 million. The 24-hour price action displayed a sharp bearish reversal and a lack of immediate buyers below 0.5009.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a strong bearish engulfing pattern between 19:00–21:00 ET as the price gapped down below critical support levels. A key resistance at 0.6603 failed to hold, triggering a cascading sell-off. The low at 0.4146 may mark a short-term floor, with a 0.4283–0.4407 range representing potential consolidation support. A bullish reversal could form if the price closes above 0.5009.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were well below the current price, reflecting ongoing bearish momentum. The daily chart showed the 50- and 100-day moving averages both below the 200-day average, indicating a mid-term downtrend. The price remains well below the 200-day MA, signaling a continuation of bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed a deep bearish crossover with a negative histogram, confirming downward momentum. RSI dropped to 27, entering oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the lack of volume during this decline means the oversold level may not be enough to trigger a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 21:00 ET, indicating a period of high volatility. The price closed near the lower band, a sign of bearish exhaustion. A rebound could see the price testing the upper band again if buyers emerge above 0.5009, but a break below 0.4146 may further stretch the lower band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp decline, especially between 21:00–23:00 ET, as the price dropped through critical support levels. The high volume confirmed the bearish move. Notional turnover also spiked, aligning with price action and suggesting broad participation from institutional and retail sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.6603–0.4146 swing, the 0.5009 level (61.8%) acted as a strong resistance-turned-support. A bounce from the 38.2% retracement level at 0.5413 could offer a short-term target, though a retest of 0.4283–0.4407 is more likely. On the daily chart, the 0.4283–0.4407 range marks the 61.8% retracement of a larger bearish leg.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup, a potential backtesting strategy involves shorting on a break below 0.4283 with a stop above 0.4407 and a target at 0.4146–0.3900. This aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI reading. Volume confirmation below 0.4283 adds credibility to the trade. A countertrend long could also be considered at the 38.2% retracement level if buyers emerge above 0.4407.