Planet Labs Soars 36% on Earnings Surge and Strategic Shifts—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Planet Labs (PL) surges 36.24% to $17.63, hitting its 52-week high of $17.84
• Q3 revenue jumps 33% to $81.25M, exceeding $73.55M estimates
• Guidance for FY2026 revenue of $297M–$301M, up from $282.46M TTM
• Turnover spikes to 44.2M shares, 19.24% of float, amid elevated options activity

Planet Labs has ignited a frenzy in the aerospace sector, with shares surging 36.24% intraday following a blockbuster Q3 report. The stock’s meteoric rise—driven by revenue outperformance, revised guidance, and strategic pivots toward defense contracts—has drawn sharp focus from traders and analysts. With the stock nearing its 52-week high and options volatility spiking, the question now is whether this momentum can sustain or if it’s a short-term euphoria.

Q3 Earnings and Guidance Fuel 36% Surge
Planet Labs’ 36.24% intraday jump stems from a combination of Q3 revenue outperformance, revised FY2026 guidance, and strategic realignment. The company reported $81.25M in revenue, a 33% year-over-year increase, surpassing the $73.55M consensus. Management raised FY2026 revenue projections to $297M–$301M, reflecting new contract wins and a shift toward defense and government work. CEO William Marshall highlighted the Berlin facility’s capacity expansion for Pelican satellites and the Tanager program’s methane detection success as catalysts. The stock’s surge also aligns with broader defense sector tailwinds, including European defense spending and AI-driven surveillance demand.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Gains Momentum as PL Leads Charge
The aerospace and defense sector has seen mixed momentum, with Planet Labs outpacing peers like Kratos Defense (KTOS, +2.22%) and AeroVironment (AVAV, +0.91%). PL’s 36.24% gain contrasts with the sector’s average 1.26% rise, driven by its unique positioning in Earth observation and defense contracts. While companies like Redwire (RDW) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) face earnings pressures, PL’s strategic pivot to government work and AI integration has positioned it as a standout performer. The sector’s broader tailwinds, including U.S. and European defense spending, further amplify PL’s upside potential.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on PL’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $7.48 (well below current price)
• RSI: 66.96 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.09 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $10.68–$13.21 (price at 17.63, far above)
• K-line pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed

Planet Labs’ technicals and options chain suggest a continuation of the rally. The stock has pierced above its 52-week high of $17.84 and is trading at a 36.24% premium to its previous close. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

• PL20251219C16.5 (Call, $16.5 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 93.25% (high)
- Delta: 0.708 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.098968 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.132694 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 160,916 (liquid)
- Leverage: 10.39%
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.18 per contract
- This call benefits from high gamma and liquidity, ideal for a short-term rally.

• PL20251219C17.5 (Call, $17.5 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 91.21% (high)
- Delta: 0.558 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.095698 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.155969 (very high)
- Turnover: 91,920 (liquid)
- Leverage: 16.06%
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.82 per contract
- This contract offers a balance of leverage and gamma, suitable for a continuation of the bullish trend.

Traders should monitor the 52-week high of $17.84 and the 200-day MA at $7.48 as key levels. A break above $17.84 could trigger a retest of the Bollinger Upper Band at $13.21, though the current momentum suggests a push toward $18.50. Aggressive bulls may consider PL20251219C16.5 into a bounce above $17.84.

Backtest Planet Labs Stock Performance
The backtest of PL's performance after a 36% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals mixed results. While the event frequency is relatively high at 111 instances, the short-term win rates are below average, indicating that the stock tends to underperform in the immediate aftermath of such a surge. The 3-day win rate is 50.45%, the 10-day win rate is 45.05%, and the 30-day win rate is 41.44%. Additionally, the returns over the specified time frames are negative, with the maximum return being only 1.51% over 30 days. These findings suggest that following a 36% intraday surge in PL, investors may face challenges in achieving further gains in the short term.

PL’s Rally Gains Legs—Act Now Before Volatility Fades
Planet Labs’ 36.24% surge is underpinned by strong Q3 results, revised guidance, and strategic defense tailwinds. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of the rally, with key resistance at $17.84 and $18.50. Investors should watch for a breakout above $17.84 to confirm the trend, while options traders can capitalize on high-gamma contracts like PL20251219C16.5. The sector leader, Lockheed Martin (LMT), is up 2.26%, signaling broader aerospace momentum. For PL, the next 48 hours will be critical—break above $17.84 and hold, and the stock could test $20.00. Act now: Buy PL20251219C16.5 into a bounce above $17.84.