Planet Labs Soars 32.9% on Earnings Surge: What's Fueling the Rocket Ride?

Summary
• Planet Labs (PL) surges 32.9% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $17.56.
• Q3 revenue jumps 33% to $81M, breakeven EPS, and a $734M backlog signal strategic shift to military contracts.
• Options frenzy: 44,000 calls traded, with the January 2026 15-strike call as the most active.

Planet Labs' stock has erupted on Thursday, driven by a stunning Q3 earnings report that defied expectations. The satellite imaging giant not only beat revenue forecasts but also reported breakeven earnings, signaling a pivotal pivot toward high-margin defense and intelligence contracts. With a 32.9% intraday gain and a $17.56 peak, investors are scrambling to decipher whether this is a short-lived rally or the start of a new bull phase.

Q3 Earnings and Strategic Shift Ignite PL's Surge
Planet Labs' 32.9% intraday surge stems from a combination of outperforming Q3 results and a strategic realignment. The company reported $81.3M in revenue—33% year-over-year growth—surpassing the $72M estimate. More notably, it achieved breakeven EPS, a stark contrast to the $0.04 loss forecast. CEO Will Marshall highlighted a 216% increase in backlog and a pivot toward military and security contracts, including a $17.5M NGA award and NATO expansion. This shift, coupled with three consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, has reinvigorated investor confidence.

Options and Technicals: Navigating PL's Volatility
• MACD: 0.0901 (bullish divergence), RSI: 66.96 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $10.68–$13.21 (price above upper band).
• 200-day MA: $7.48 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $12.28 (support level).

Planet Labs is in a short- and long-term bullish trend, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD signaling momentum. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $17.56 and the 30-day MA at $12.28. The stock’s 15.45% turnover rate and 32.9% intraday gain suggest strong short-term demand, though overbought RSI warns of potential pullbacks.

Top Options Picks:
• PL20251219C17 (Call, $17 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 84.82% (high volatility), Leverage Ratio: 14.07%, Delta: 0.6286 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.094178 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.1614 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 125,046.
- This call offers aggressive leverage with high gamma, ideal for a continuation of the rally. A 5% upside to $18.06 would yield a payoff of $1.06 per contract.
• PL20251219C17.5 (Call, $17.5 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 86.35% (high volatility), Leverage Ratio: 17.59%, Delta: 0.5442 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.091847 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.1663 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 80,580.
- This contract balances leverage and liquidity, with a 5% upside payoff of $0.76. Its high gamma makes it responsive to continued momentum.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider PL20251219C17 into a breakout above $17.56, while cautious traders might use PL20251219C17.5 for a measured rally.

Backtest Planet Labs Stock Performance
The backtest of PL's performance after a 33% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-Day, 10-Day, and 30-Day win rates are all around 50%, indicating a coin flip probability of winning, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 11.29%, which was achieved on day 59. This suggests that while there is a decent chance of positive returns in the short term, the overall performance after such a large intraday increase is modest.

PL's Momentum: A Buy Signal or Cautionary Tale?
Planet Labs' 32.9% surge reflects a compelling mix of earnings outperformance and strategic clarity, but sustainability hinges on maintaining its 33% revenue growth and free cash flow momentum. Key signals to monitor include the 52-week high of $17.56 and the 30-day MA at $12.28. While the stock’s technicals remain bullish, overbought RSI and elevated IV in options suggest caution. Sector leader BlackSky (BKSY) is down 0.26%, indicating PL’s rally is stock-specific. Investors should watch for a pullback to $15.80 (today’s open) as a potential entry point, but prioritize risk management given the stock’s volatility.