PIVX/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-11-14

Summary
• PIVX/Bitcoin posted a 1.55% decline on the 24-hour chart amid bearish momentum.
• A key support level emerged near 1.96e-06 after a sharp drop from 2.38e-06.
• Volatility surged mid-day, with turnover peaking during the 17:30–18:45 ET window.

Market Overview

At 12:00 ET-1, PIVX/Bitcoin opened at 2.38e-06 and reached a 24-hour high of 2.38e-06. The pair then declined sharply, bottoming at 1.96e-06, before stabilizing near 2.05e-06 at 12:00 ET. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,296,911.0 trades, with a notional turnover of 2,635,111.85 (PIVX BTC).

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:30 ET, with a 6.1% drop in a single 15-minute interval. A doji at 2.05e-06 suggests indecision between buyers and sellers. Key support levels include 1.96e-06 (confirmed on three occasions) and 2.02e-06, while resistance is likely at 2.05e-06 and 2.08e-06.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are in a downward trajectory, confirming short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is crossing below the 200-day MA, suggesting a possible bear market bias for the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 18:00 ET and remains bearish, with the signal line below the MACD histogram. RSI has been in oversold territory (below 30) since 19:00 ET, but price has yet to bounce meaningfully—possibly indicating exhaustion among short-term buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly from 17:30 to 19:00 ET, indicating heightened volatility. Price currently trades near the lower band at 1.96e-06, suggesting a potential reversal may be in play.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:30–18:45 ET window, confirming the bearish move from 2.38e-06 to 1.96e-06. Notional turnover also peaked during that period, indicating significant liquidity shifts. Price and turnover appear to be aligned, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement level of the 17:30–21:30 ET move sits at approximately 2.16e-06, and the 61.8% level at 2.03e-06. These levels may act as temporary resistance if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long positions when RSI dips below 30 and exiting when RSI crosses above 70 or at the end of the next 24-hour period. Given the recent RSI readings near 30 and the lack of a strong reversal, this setup may offer limited upside in the near term. If the market remains in oversold territory without a meaningful bounce, the strategy risks false signals or whipsaw losses.