PIVX/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-09-15

• PIVXBTC fell from 1.23e-06 to 1.15e-06 over 24 hours, ending at a 9% intraday low.
• Volume spiked near the close (12:00–16:00 ET) but failed to confirm a rebound.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with no signs of overbought conditions.
• Price remains below key moving averages, suggesting continued weakness.

Price and Volume Snapshot

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-14, PIVXBTC opened at 1.22e-06 and reached a high of 1.23e-06. By 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15, the pair closed at 1.15e-06, after touching a low of 1.15e-06. Total volume over 24 hours was 859,641.0 units, with notional turnover reaching 1.009 BTC equivalent. The late-day selloff and lack of follow-through buying suggest bearish pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price action on PIVXBTC formed multiple bearish patterns including a bearish engulfing pattern at 1.22e-06 to 1.21e-06 and a shooting star formation around 1.21e-06. A key support level was identified at 1.15e-06, where the price consolidated briefly before continuing lower. Resistance appears capped at 1.23e-06, with no clear bullish reversal signals forming during the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, PIVXBTC closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, reinforcing a downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA are aligned bearishly, with price below all. The RSI, currently at 28, suggests oversold territory, though without significant buying interest, this may not spark a rebound. The MACD histogram remains bearish, with negative divergence observed in the later hours.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased in the final hours, with a late-day break below the lower Bollinger Band. The 20-period band width expanded from 0.003e-06 to 0.005e-06, signaling growing uncertainty. Price action remains within the bands, but the widening suggests increased risk of a sharp move, likely to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively quiet for most of the session, but surged between 08:15 and 16:00 ET, coinciding with the final leg of the selloff. Notional turnover increased sharply as price moved lower, indicating strong selling pressure. However, volume failed to confirm any meaningful bounce in price, suggesting a lack of conviction from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 1.23e-06 to 1.15e-06 swing, 61.8% (1.17e-06) acted as a key level of temporary support, but failed to hold. The 38.2% level (1.19e-06) also showed limited resistance. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement remains untested, but with current price near 1.15e-06, it appears to be the next critical target for sellers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on a combination of RSI oversold conditions and a bearish divergence in the MACD could be considered. Triggers include RSI < 30 and a negative MACD crossover. Stop-loss could be placed above the most recent swing high, while take-profit targets align with key Fibonacci levels. Given the current bearish setup and high volume in the short term, such a strategy might offer a low-risk entry into the continuation of the downtrend.