PIPE Overhang and Macro Uncertainty Drive Crypto's Sharp Downturn

The crypto market continues to face downward pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins extending their declines as macroeconomic uncertainty and structural challenges weigh on investor sentiment. As of September 25, 2025, BTC traded at $109,385, down 3.67% in the past 24 hours, while XRP and DOGE fell by 6% and 4.5%, respectively. The broader crypto market, valued at $3.74 trillion, has seen Bitcoin’s dominance rise to 58.23%, reflecting a flight to relative safety amid volatile conditions.

Private investment in public equity (PIPE) deals have emerged as a critical factor exacerbating the slump in crypto treasury companies. These firms, which hold substantial Bitcoin reserves, raised capital through discounted share offerings to fund their strategies. However, the resumption of trading for PIPE-issued shares has triggered selling pressure, dragging down stock prices. For example, Kindly MD (NAKA) plummeted 97% to $1.16, nearly matching its $1.12 PIPE price, after its lock-up period expired. Similarly, Strive (ASST) trades at $3.00, down 78% from its 2025 peak, while Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) faces a potential 50% decline from its current level. Analysts attribute these declines to the “overhang” effect, where increased liquidity from PIPE shares depresses valuations.

Recent U.S. economic data has further clouded the outlook for the crypto market. A revised GDP growth rate of 3.8% in Q2 2025, coupled with a drop in initial jobless claims to 218,000, has reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.20%, its highest in three weeks, as investors shifted capital to traditional assets. This trend has spilled over into crypto-related equities, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) falling 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively. Bitcoin’s technical outlook also remains fragile, with key support at $109,898 and resistance at $115,000.

On-chain analytics highlight growing bearish momentum. Whale selling activity has intensified, with 147,000 BTC sold in a single month, according to CryptoQuant. This outflow has accelerated downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, which has struggled to break above $115,000. Analysts from 10x Research caution that Bitcoin could swing $20,000 in either direction in early Q4 2025, emphasizing the market’s susceptibility to macroeconomic shifts and liquidity-driven moves.

The prognosis for crypto treasury companies and altcoins hinges on a sustained Bitcoin rally. Without a resurgence in BTC’s price, many firms risk trending toward or below their PIPE issuance levels, triggering a feedback loop of selling that could further depress both crypto and equity markets. Meanwhile, altcoins like XRP and DOGE remain vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds, with their performance closely tied to Bitcoin’s trajectory.

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[1] "PIPE dreams: Bitcoin treasury companies risk further 55% stock price declines" (https://cryptoslate.com/pipe-dreams-bitcoin-treasury-companies-risk-further-55-stock-price-declines/)

[2] "Crypto treasuries risk 50% downside on PIPE selling pressure" (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-treasuries-risk-50-downside-pipe-selling-pressure-cryptoquant)

[3] "Bitcoin Falls Below $111K, Crypto Stocks Plunge as GDP Revision Dampens Rate-Cut Odds" (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/25/bitcoin-falls-below-usd111k-crypto-stocks-plunge-as-gdp-revision-dampens-rate-cut-odds)

[4] "Bitcoin Q4 2025 Forecast: BTC Could Move $20K Amid Weak ‘Uptober’ Rally" (https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-q4-2025-forecast-btc-could-move-20k-amid-weak-uptober-rally/)

[5] "Altcoin Treasuries, PIPE Deals, and Investor Risks" (https://blofin.com/en/academy/blofin-courses/altcoin-treasuries-pipe-deals-and-investor-risks)