PI Price Flow: Unlocks, Deposits, and the 2026–2032 Path

The immediate setup for Pi Network is defined by a price stuck in a liquidity trap. The token is trading near $0.1582, well below its key moving averages. The 20-EMA at $0.176 and 50-EMA at $0.193 now act as dynamic resistance, confirming a clear bearish trend where every bounce is sold into.

This price action is underpinned by severe selling pressure from both retail and core team wallets. In the last 24 hours, CEXs saw a net outflow of 1.76 million PI tokens, while core team wallets shed 8.41 million PI. This dual outflow signals a sharp decline in confidence, adding substantial supply to an already weak market.

The trap tightens with the upcoming February unlock. The network is set to release over 186 million Pi Coins into circulation. This massive liquidity injection will significantly depress near-term price, as the market must absorb this new supply before any sustained recovery can take hold.

Contrasting the 2026–2032 Scenarios

The immediate flow data paints a starkly bearish picture for the near term. The market is in a state of Extreme Fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 9. This sentiment aligns with a clear technical path: the price is forecast to drop 25.55% to $0.1126 by the end of 2026. This scenario is a direct extension of current selling pressure, where outflows from both retail and core team wallets are overwhelming any potential demand.

For a bullish recovery to take hold, a fundamental shift in wallet behavior is required. The price must first demonstrate the ability to sustain above key resistance. The critical technical level is the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.1920. A sustained break and close above this level would signal a shift from selling to holding, providing the initial technical foundation for a longer-term rally. Without this shift, the bearish flow path remains the default.

Looking further out, the long-term forecast shows a dramatic potential turnaround. Models project a 105% rally to $0.3085 by the end of 2026. However, this optimistic path is entirely contingent on the ecosystem's success in transitioning from a mining-based model to one driven by builders and utility. The current outflow data suggests that transition is not yet happening, making the long-term bullish case a function of future execution, not present market flows.

Catalysts and Key Levels for the 2032 Thesis

The long-term thesis hinges on a few critical flow signals and price levels. The immediate catalyst is the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.1920. A sustained break and close above this level is the essential technical trigger for a bullish shift. It would confirm that selling pressure is exhausted and that accumulation has begun, providing the foundational momentum for any multi-year rally.

Confirmatory evidence will come from exchange deposit trends. A steady increase in deposits, as seen with the net outflow of 1.76 million PI tokens to CEXs, signals continued selling pressure from retail holders. For the bullish path to gain traction, this flow must reverse. Sustained withdrawals or stable deposits would be a stronger signal that holders are moving assets off exchanges, a prerequisite for a price discovery phase.

The primary near-term risk is a break below the $0.150 support level. The price is already testing the December low at $0.1533. A daily close below $0.150 would open the door to a deeper correction toward the 14-day RSI oversold level. This would validate the bearish flow narrative and likely reset the timeline for any recovery, pushing the 2032 thesis further out. The setup is binary: hold above $0.150 and test $0.1920, or break down and retest $0.1327.