PI's Price Flow: Assessing the Bearish Selloff and Key Support Levels

Pi Network is trading near $0.1582, having broken down from a prior consolidation zone near $0.20. The market has shifted from a range-bound setup to forming a lower base, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) now above price and acting as dynamic resistance. This technical flip confirms a bearish trend where every minor bounce is being sold into before reaching the overhead EMA cluster.

The immediate price context is defined by oversold momentum and a clear support/resistance structure. The daily RSI remains in the oversold region below 30, a signal that extreme selling pressure has been sustained but may set up for a technical bounce. Key levels are now in focus: immediate support lies at $0.15, while the next major resistance to reclaim is the $0.20 psychological and technical zone. A decisive break below $0.15 would signal further downside toward the $0.145–$0.140 range.

The bottom line is that while a complete collapse to $0 is a low-probability event absent a catastrophic project failure, the current flow is heavily bearish. The setup-a price below all major EMAs, an oversold RSI, and a broken consolidation zone-favors continued downside pressure until a clear reversal signal emerges. For now, the market is range-bound between $0.15 and $0.20, with the weight of the trend firmly on the downside.

The Mechanics of the Selloff: Supply Pressure and Market Structure

The selloff is a direct function of overwhelming supply hitting a market with weak demand. The token has dumped more than 95% in less than a year from its all-time high, with recent declines including a 40% drop in a month to a new low of $0.1338. This persistent selling pressure is now being amplified by a major on-chain event: the unblocking of 2.5 million users for KYC and mainnet migration. This action adds a fresh wave of potential sell-side tokens to an already thin liquidity pool.

The market structure is dominated by this one-way flow. There are no positive catalysts like utility growth or major exchange listings to counteract the supply. As a result, the token is in a classic "stairway to hell" pattern, where each new all-time low confirms the dominance of selling pressure. The lack of deep liquidity buffers means that when selling accelerates, price discovery to the downside can happen quickly, as demonstrated by the recent crash.

The bottom line is that the flow is bearish and entirely driven by supply dynamics. The unblocking of millions of users creates a steady drip of new tokens, while the absence of fundamental catalysts leaves buyers with no reason to step in. This setup favors continued downside pressure until either the supply overhang is absorbed or a significant positive development forces a shift in market sentiment.

Catalysts and Risks: What Could Move the Price Flow

The immediate catalyst is the launch of the KYC validator reward system by the end of March 2026. This event could boost network participation and retail sentiment, providing a potential floor for price. However, it also introduces a new source of token supply as validators are rewarded, which may temporarily offset any positive sentiment.

The primary near-term risk is continued selling pressure without a positive catalyst. The market is range-bound between $0.14 and $0.18, with the weight of the trend on the downside. The catastrophic risk of a $0 price is cited by AI models, but only if exchanges delist en masse and trust collapses completely-a scenario deemed less than 20% likely. The more probable path is a grind lower if the supply overhang from token unlocks isn't absorbed.

The outlook is a battle between these forces. The validator reward system is a potential catalyst, but it comes with its own supply headwind. Without a major positive development like a high-profile exchange listing, the dominant flow will likely remain bearish, keeping price range-bound until either the supply overhang is digested or a new catalyst forces a shift.