PI Price Flow: $0.190 Rejection, Daily Unlocks, and the $0.130 Test

The price action has turned decisively bearish. After a failed breakout above $0.190, sellers forced a breakdown that triggered a 23.60% decline toward the $0.130 level. This move confirms a shift in market structure, with the prior resistance now acting as a dynamic ceiling.

The $0.130 range has emerged as a critical absorption zone. Recent price action shows sell pressure intensified as the asset tested this level, with volume spiking to $35.3 million. A failure to hold here risks a slide into a low-liquidity pocket near $0.115, with further downside exposure toward the $0.100 historical demand zone.

Confirmation of the downtrend is clear from the technical overlay. PI is trading well below all major exponential moving averages, with the 20-EMA now above price and acting as dynamic resistance. The stacked EMA cluster from $0.176 to $0.331 confirms a clear bearish trend, capping any minor bounces and signaling that selling pressure remains dominant.

The Supply Flow: Daily Unlocks vs. Trading Volume

The fundamental supply-demand imbalance is now the primary driver. An average of over 4.6 million PI tokens enter the market daily, creating a relentless flood of new supply. This consistent unlock schedule directly saturates the market, adding selling pressure that has outpaced any proportional demand from new buyers.

Trading volume reveals weak market participation. The 24-hour trading volume of $14.09M is dwarfed by the circulating supply of 8.72B coins. This low volume relative to supply means the market lacks the liquidity to absorb new tokens, leaving it vulnerable to price swings and amplifying the downward pressure from unlocks.

The situation is accelerating. Over 215 million PI tokens are set to unlock in the next 30 days, with daily averages spiking to 7.2 million. This surge in near-term supply raises immediate sell-off concerns, especially as price action tests the $0.130 support level. The flow of new tokens is simply overwhelming the existing market structure.

Catalysts and Risks: Migration Progress vs. Listing Delays

On one side, the network is making tangible progress. In the past week, Pi unblocked 2.5 million users for Mainnet migration, a move that could accelerate ecosystem growth. This expansion, coupled with additional KYC access for 700,000 more users, represents a direct catalyst for utility adoption and potential demand.

On the other side, critical friction points persist. Listing delays on major exchanges like Binance continue to weigh on investor confidence and restrict accessible liquidity. This lack of broader market access undermines the token's tradability and reinforces the perception of a fragmented, low-liquidity market.

The primary risk is that this positive migration momentum is being overwhelmed by fundamental supply pressure. With over 4.6 million PI tokens unlocking daily and a massive 215 million tokens set to unlock in the next 30 days, the flow of new supply is simply too great for the current weak demand to absorb. Any positive sentiment from utility updates is likely to be crushed by this relentless sell-off pressure.