Pi Network's Rally: Structural Flaws vs. Technical Optimism

Pi Network (PI) has shown a short-term recovery, trading above $0.2150 as of October 13, 2025, marking a 5.5% rise in 24 hours Will Pi Network hit a fresh record low? - FXStreet^[1]. Despite this, the token remains under bearish pressure, with analysts highlighting structural vulnerabilities such as centralized token distribution and ongoing supply unlocks. Centralized Exchange (CEX) reserves now hold over 417 million PI tokens, exacerbating concerns about liquidity and selling pressure Will Pi Network hit a fresh record low? - FXStreet^[1].

Technical indicators suggest mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into the oversold zone, reading 28 on the daily chart, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) nears a potential bullish crossover, which could signal a shift in momentum Will Pi Network hit a fresh record low? - FXStreet^[1]. However, the asset is forming a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart, with key resistance at $0.2755 and critical support levels at $0.2000 and $0.1731 Will Pi Network hit a fresh record low? - FXStreet^[1].

Token supply dynamics remain a significant headwind. Over 126 million tokens are expected to unlock in October 2025, with an additional 1.2 billion tokens set to enter circulation over the next 12 months. This supply increase, coupled with weak demand (24-hour trading volume below $30 million), has contributed to a 90% decline from PI's all-time high of $3.00 in February 2025 Pi Network price prediction: Here's why the Pi token has crashed^[3]. Major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase have yet to list PI, limiting its liquidity and adoption Pi Network price prediction: Here's why the Pi token has crashed^[3].

Recent developments, however, hint at potential catalysts. The Open Mainnet's launch in February 2025 enabled external wallet transactions, and the token's listing on OKX, Bitget, and MEXC has provided some liquidity Pi Network Price Recovers After Crash | Future Prediction^[4]. Additionally, the 2025 Hackathon and Global Consensus Value (GCV) conference aim to drive app development and community engagement This Changes Everything For Pi Crypto: Updated Pi Price …^[5].

Price forecasts vary. CoinCodex predicts a 227% increase to $2.02 by May 2025, contingent on improved adoption and exchange listings . Conversely, conservative estimates from CoinGape suggest a bearish continuation to $0.1500 if key support levels fail Pi Network (PI) Price: Bulls Return as Trading Volume Surges 6.9^[8].

Analysts emphasize that PI's recovery hinges on addressing structural challenges. Increased transparency, ecosystem utility through dApps, and controlled tokenomics are critical for long-term stability . The next 12 months will test the network's ability to balance supply with demand and attract broader market participation.