Pi Network's Price Resilience and Market Sentiment: A Technical and Behavioral Analysis of the $0.368 Support Level

The Pi Network token (PI) is at a pivotal moment as it tests the $0.368 support level—a psychological and technical fulcrum that could determine its near-term trajectory. While short-term bullish signals flicker in the 4-hour chart, the broader picture remains clouded by bearish momentum and structural weaknesses in the token’s fundamentals. This analysis dissects the interplay of technical indicators, behavioral sentiment, and on-chain dynamics to assess whether PI can defend this critical level or succumb to further declines.

Technical Indicators: A Fragile Defense

The $0.368 level has historically acted as a baseline for PI, with traders defending it in August 2025 before a 23% price drop [1]. Historical data from 2022 to the present reveals that after touching key support levels (S1), PI has shown a 53% win rate in subsequent price action, though the average cumulative excess return over 30 days remains modest (~1.3 ppts) and statistically insignificant [5]. This suggests that while support levels like $0.368 may offer temporary respite, they lack a strong directional edge in the long term.

Currently, the price is trading below the 50-EMA ($0.3692) but attempting to retest the 200-EMA ($0.3823), a key resistance barrier [2]. On the 2-hour chart, a bullish reversal is in play, with the $0.368 level breaking out of a bearish order block and now acting as support [1]. However, the Balance of Power (BoP) indicator at -0.70 suggests sellers are gaining control, and the RSI of 54.42—while neutral—remains below the 50 threshold, signaling lingering bearish pressure [4].

The 1-month price projection is particularly concerning: a 24.99% decline to $0.275965 is anticipated, aligning with a broader bearish sentiment [1]. This projection is reinforced by the token’s inability to sustain gains above $0.38, a level that has repeatedly failed as resistance [2].

Behavioral Sentiment: Neutral but Cautious

Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, is at 48 (neutral), reflecting a lack of strong conviction among investors [1]. This neutrality contrasts with the BoP’s bearish signal, indicating a tug-of-war between cautious buyers and profit-taking sellers. The recent 6.59% price drop in 24 hours [3] further underscores the fragility of bullish momentum.

On-chain metrics add another layer of concern. Token unlocks in August and September 2025 have exacerbated oversupply risks, with the top 100 wallets controlling 96.37% of the supply [2]. This concentration of holdings increases the likelihood of dumping if the $0.368 level breaks, potentially accelerating the decline toward $0.3167 [2].

Fundamental Constraints: Adoption vs. Hype

Despite Pi Network’s ecosystem expansion—Linux nodes, dApp development, and 2.6 million new users in 2025—the token’s real-world adoption remains limited [2]. Its absence from major exchanges and the lack of a clear use case beyond speculative trading hinder demand. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s weakness in the broader market [1] adds an external headwind, as PI’s price is indirectly correlated with macro trends.

A breakout above $0.4646 could trigger a 35% price increase, but this scenario depends on catalysts like a major exchange listing or a surge in dApp usage [2]. Until such events materialize, the token’s fundamentals remain a drag on its technical resilience.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture

Pi Network’s $0.368 support level is a battleground for bulls and bears. While the 4-hour chart offers a glimmer of hope with a “Buy” recommendation [3], the broader technical and behavioral indicators lean bearish. The RSI’s proximity to 50 and the BoP’s negative reading suggest a precarious balance, with even a minor breakdown potentially triggering a cascade of selling. Investors must weigh the token’s speculative appeal against its structural weaknesses—concentrated supply, limited adoption, and a lack of macro support. For now, the $0.368 level remains a critical watchpoint, with its defense or failure likely to define PI’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

Source:[1] Pi Network - Can bulls defend $0.368 or will sellers take over? [https://ambcrypto.com/pi-network-can-bulls-defend-0-368-or-will-sellers-take-over/][2] Is Pi Coin Poised for a Breakout: A Deep Dive into ... [https://www.ainvest.com/news/pi-coin-poised-breakout-deep-dive-technical-fundamental-drivers-2508/][3] PI Coin Price Today, PI Network Price, Pi Price [https://www.bitget.com/price/pi-network][4] PI Coin — PI USDT Charts and Quotes [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/PIUSDT/][5] Backtest results for PI Network support-level performance (2022–2025)