Pi Network Clings to $0.20 as Whale Sells 1M Tokens, Clouding Market Confidence

Pi Network (PI) remains in a critical juncture as it hovers near $0.20, unable to break through key technical levels. The price has struggled against the 50-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and faces resistance at $0.2065. Recent data from PiScan reveals a whale offloading over 1 million PI tokens, adding to concerns about market confidence.

Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook.

The RSI sits at 50, while the MACD is trending upward toward the zero line, signaling reduced selling pressure. However, the Supertrend indicator remains close to the 50-period EMA, and a breakout above it is necessary for a bullish trend confirmation.

Investor sentiment is further clouded by recent on-chain activity. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) recently crossed above the zero line, indicating inflows after weeks of outflows. This shift may suggest growing conviction among holders. Still, the CMF remains below positive territory, showing that large-scale selling pressure persists.

Why the Standoff Happened

Pi Network's current impasse stems from conflicting signals between retail and institutional investors. Retail buyers are showing some interest, as seen through a higher low on the Money Flow Index (MFI) despite the falling price. However, larger players, as shown by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator, continue to sell, keeping net inflows negative. This mismatch is typical of "falling knife" scenarios, where retail investors attempt to catch a rebound while bigger money exits the asset.

The recent whale transaction also highlights the fragility of investor confidence. With over 1 million PI tokens moved onto an exchange, the market interprets it as a strategic risk-reduction move. The whale still holds a significant portion of its overall PI stake, suggesting the move was not an all-in sell-off. Still, the action signals caution among key investors.

What Analysts Are Watching

Traders and analysts are closely monitoring Pi Network's ability to reclaim the $0.2065 resistance level. A sustained close above this threshold could confirm a bullish reversal and push the price toward $0.2179 and the 200-period EMA at $0.2221. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level coincides with this area, making it a crucial target for bulls.

Conversely, a breakdown below $0.2000 would expose further downside risks. The next support levels sit at $0.1934 and $0.1847, with $0.1000 being the final line of defense. A breach of $0.1000 could trigger a fresh all-time low and extend the bearish trend into 2026.

Analysts are also watching Pi Network's upcoming token unlocks in 2026. These scheduled releases could introduce 1.21 billion PI tokens to the market, potentially increasing selling pressure if investor sentiment remains weak. The AI-enhanced KYC process is expected to speed up mainnet migration, further increasing token availability on exchanges.

Risks to the Outlook

The Pi Network project faces several structural risks that could weigh on the price. First, the majority of tokens remain locked in Pi Foundation wallets, increasing the risk of price manipulation. A single large holder controls 391 million PI tokens, worth over $81 million, adding to concerns about centralization.

Second, regulatory and exchange listing hurdles persist. The mandatory KYB verification for exchanges seeking to list PI limits its availability on major platforms like Binance. This bottleneck could slow down broader adoption and liquidity expansion.

Lastly, uncertainty surrounding Pi Network's roadmap and tokenomics continues to deter institutional interest. The lack of clarity on real-world use cases, despite recent partnerships with gaming firms, means the project remains unproven in practical applications. Without demonstrating tangible utility, Pi Network may struggle to attract the broader investor base it needs to sustain a long-term recovery.

What This Means for Investors

For retail investors, the current phase presents both opportunity and risk. A rebound above $0.213 could signal a short-term recovery, supported by improving momentum and inflows. However, holding positions below this level remains highly speculative, with limited downside protection.

Long-term investors should watch for developments in real-world use cases and regulatory clarity. The recent hackathon and DEX initiatives are positive signs, but execution remains key. Until Pi Network can demonstrate a viable path to utility and transparency, the project will likely remain in a speculative category.

Short-term traders may find value in the $0.2000–$0.213 range, where the price is poised to test critical resistance levels. A breakout could lead to a rally toward $0.2221, but a breakdown would likely deepen the bearish trend.