PI's New Low: Flow Metrics Signal Continued Downside

The price of Pi Network has broken below its previous low, hitting a new all-time low of $0.1513 just seven hours ago. This move follows a 1.89% drop in the past 24 hours, extending a broader four-week decline that has seen the token fall 25% this month.

The immediate catalyst is a massive, sustained outflow of tokens from core team wallets. Data shows the Pi Foundation sold roughly 17 million PI tokens over the last day, a clear signal of internal sell pressure. This sell-off is compounded by the over 133 million PI tokens unlocked in February, adding significant new supply to a market already witnessing weak demand.

Viewed through a flow lens, this is a classic crash driven by overwhelming selling pressure. The combination of large-scale, consistent outflows from key wallets and a major monthly unlock event has overwhelmed any potential buying interest, pushing the price to a new low.

Retail and Core Team Capital Flight

The flow of capital is now a dual exodus, with both retail and insiders selling. In the past 24 hours, CEXs saw a net inflow of 1.76 million PI tokens. This is a classic signal of risk-off sentiment, where mainnet users are moving tokens to exchanges, preparing for potential sales. It builds near-term selling pressure as these tokens become available for immediate trading.

This retail flight is dwarfed by the outflow from the core team. During the same period, 8.41 million PI tokens left core team wallets. This is a massive, asymmetric sell-off that severely erodes trust. When the project's own team is dumping large amounts, it sends a clear message that even insiders lack confidence in the token's near-term value.

The result is a perfect storm of selling pressure. Retail inflows to exchanges indicate a herd mentality of selling, while the core team's outflow adds a massive, consistent supply shock. This dual capital flight creates overwhelming downward force, making it extremely difficult for any technical rebound to gain traction.

Liquidity Crisis and Downside Scenarios

The technical setup is fragile, with a critical support level at $0.1533. A break below this key price could trigger a swift test of the next major support at $0.1327. The Relative Strength Index sits at 39, signaling oversold conditions, while the MACD approaches the signal line-a bearish momentum signal that suggests the recent bounce lacks staying power.

The most severe risk, however, is a liquidity crisis. Daily trading volume has collapsed to just $437,240. For a token with a $1.37 billion market cap, this volume is negligible. It indicates a market where few are actively trading, creating a dangerous thin market.

In a liquidity crunch, even small sell orders can cause outsized price moves. With so little volume, the overwhelming selling pressure from both retail and the core team can easily overwhelm any buyers, amplifying downside moves. The technical support levels become psychological targets, not hard floors, as a lack of liquidity prevents orderly price discovery.