Pi Coin Faces 30% Drop Risk as 276 Million Tokens Unlock

Several key factors could significantly influence the trajectory of Pi Coin in the months ahead. The pace of Pi Network’s Mainnet migration continues to play a central role in price dynamics. While over 12 million Pioneers have migrated so far, delays in processing referral bonuses and the gradual rollout of periodic migrations may hinder short-term ecosystem growth. Token issuance is tied to user migration, with the Core Team currently controlling 20% of the total 100 billion supply.

A major event on the horizon is the upcoming unlock of 276 million Pi tokens scheduled between June and July 2025. This tranche accounts for 3.7% of the circulating supply, and at current prices, it could introduce approximately $215 million in potential sell pressure. Historical precedent suggests these unlocks often lead to steep corrections — previous unlocks have triggered price drops ranging from 30% to 77%.

From a technical standpoint, Pi Coin is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with $0.54 serving as a key support level and $0.74 acting as resistance. Indicators currently lean bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.81 signals weak momentum, remaining well below the bullish threshold of 50. The MACD Histogram reading at -0.0064 confirms a bearish crossover. The $0.50 mark remains a critical level. A breakdown below this could spark panic-driven sell-offs.

The broader market environment is also a limiting factor. With Bitcoin dominance currently at 64.2% and the altcoin season index sitting at just 19/100, there is minimal capital rotation into altcoins like Pi. Any shift toward an altcoin-friendly market environment could help reverse current bearish sentiment.

The future price of Pi Coin hinges on a blend of internal developments — particularly the pace of Mainnet adoption and token unlock management — and external market sentiment. A sustained move above key resistance levels or a pivot in capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins could set the stage for renewed upward momentum. Until then, caution may prevail, especially with looming sell pressure from upcoming unlocks.

The Pi Core Team has reported significant milestones in the first 100 days after the launch of the Open Network, including the addition of over 3 million new users and the activation of over 400,000 nodes across the Pi blockchain. These developments have contributed to a more robust and secure distributed infrastructure. The Pi Network has also introduced several initiatives to support ecosystem growth. Pi Ventures, a $100 million fund, aims to support startups and businesses that advance Pi’s utility and adoption. Additionally, the network launched PiFest 2025, a week-long event that saw over 125,000 registered sellers, demonstrating the integration of Pi in commerce. The .pi Domain Auction has also received substantial interest, with over 123,000 active bids and 57,000 unique bidders.

Despite these advancements, Pi Coin's price recovery has been modest. The token's value has increased by 0.58% in the past day, reaching $0.53, but it has declined by 30.4% in the past month. Retail interest in the network is also dropping, as indicated by a steady decline in Google Trends search volume for ‘Pi Network.’ However, upcoming events like Pi2day have generated some optimism among Pioneers, who hope it may reignite interest and spark a price rally.

Criticism has also followed the network, with concerns about the lack of major exchange listings, KYC issues, and missing mainnet-ready decentralized applications (DApps). These factors, along with oversupply from newly mined coins and market sentiment, could affect Pi Coin's price in the future. Analysts have warned that without major updates, the token's price could drop back to $0.40. Conversely, even a small update could potentially boost its price. Community support remains strong, and a Binance listing could boost Pi Coin's price by 40%, reaching around $0.72 within days.