Phoenix/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary

• PHBBTC formed a bullish breakout above 3.75e-06 following a consolidation phase.
• Momentum remains mixed as RSI approaches overbought levels but volume has not confirmed.
• Volatility spiked in the 18:45–21:00 ET window, with a 3.79e-06 high before retracing.
• Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased uncertainty and possible continuation of a trend.
• A key support level appears at 3.66e-06, which held during early trading hours.

Market Overview

Phoenix/Bitcoin (PHBBTC) opened at 3.73e-06 on 2025-11-09 (12:00 ET – 1), with a high of 3.79e-06 and a low of 3.61e-06, closing at 3.71e-06 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 22,435.1, and total turnover (amount) was 685.9. The pair has shown a modest but consistent upward drift, with multiple bullish engulfing patterns forming around 3.75e-06 and 3.65e-06. Key resistance appears at 3.75e-06–3.76e-06, where several candles failed to close above. A strong support zone is forming around 3.66e-06, with several candle closures and retests suggesting it may act as a floor.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have shifted upward, indicating short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are converging, suggesting a potential shift in the longer-term trend. MACD is showing positive divergence in the last hour, with a narrowing histogram and a cross above the zero line. RSI is trending into overbought territory around 70, but without a corresponding volume increase, this may signal a potential pullback.

Bollinger Bands have expanded to reflect heightened volatility, with price frequently touching both the upper and lower bands. This suggests a period of active trading and potential breakout conditions. Recent swings, such as the 3.61e-06 to 3.79e-06 move, have seen price retrace to key Fibonacci levels—most recently 61.8% at 3.71e-06—where it consolidated before breaking higher. This level is now a potential area of interest for further consolidation or a reversal.

Volume and turnover have been inconsistent, with sharp spikes observed in the 2045–2100 ET timeframe, particularly during the candle that reached 3.79e-06. However, volume has since declined, and the subsequent candles have shown a pattern of indecision, with wicks forming and failed attempts to close above 3.76e-06. This may indicate that buyers are either exhausted or cautious, and price could face resistance near the 3.75e-06–3.76e-06 cluster.

Backtest Hypothesis

For the proposed backtest strategy—buying PHBBTC on every Bullish Engulfing candle and holding for 15 minutes—the 15-minute OHLCV data suggests several potential entry opportunities. Candles forming at 3.75e-06 and 3.65e-06 would qualify as bullish engulfing patterns, and given the volume spikes that followed some of these entries, the data appears supportive of the concept. However, as our backtesting engine is currently limited to daily data and holding periods in days, we must approximate the 15-minute exit by using the same-day open and close. A true intraday backtest would require a different engine. If we proceed with the daily approximation, we would treat each bullish engulfing signal as an entry at the day’s open and an exit at the day’s close. This approach would allow us to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the pattern over the 2022–2025 period using daily data. Please confirm how you would like to proceed.