Philippine VP Duterte's Impeachment Attempts Face Hurdles as Her Popularity Holds

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte is facing three new impeachment complaints, setting the stage for renewed scrutiny aimed at preventing her from becoming the country’s next leader. The complaints are awaiting action from the House of Representatives, dominated by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s allies, which resumes sessions next week. The accusations range from misuse of public funds to an assassination threat against Marcos — claims she denies.

Her lawyer has stated that the complaints are “devoid of both factual and legal basis.” Even with the president’s allies holding a majority in the House, there are doubts whether they will support impeaching his former ally. Duterte, daughter of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, has said she is considering a presidential run in 2028 and is emerging as a strong contender, with rising popularity and a loyal base in the country’s south.

The latest complaints against Marcos’ deputy are largely the same as last year’s, and what’s “crucial is whether the impeachment of the VP still has the support of one-third of the House membership,” said Congresswoman Leila de Lima, a critic of the Duterte family who endorsed two of the three complaints filed against the vice president this year.

Why Did This Happen?

Duterte’s impeachment attempts have become a political battleground due to her growing influence and the potential threat she poses to the current administration. The complaints filed against her include issues related to misuse of public funds and an assassination threat against President Marcos, which she denies.

Her lawyer has emphasized the lack of factual and legal merit in the charges. Despite the majority support for the president in the House, there is uncertainty over whether these charges will proceed to a vote, as some members might view the proceedings as politically motivated.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The upcoming impeachment process is no longer about the credibility and viability of the charges — that has already been settled — but about the numbers. Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director of risk consultancy Teneo, also thinks Duterte’s impeachment by the House may not be assured.

Analysts are watching to see if the House will move forward with the impeachment proceedings and whether a sufficient number of lawmakers will support the measure. The outcome of this vote could have significant implications for the political landscape in the Philippines and the potential 2028 presidential race.

What Are the Political Implications?

The political implications of these impeachment attempts are significant, especially considering Duterte’s popularity and the potential for her to run for president in 2028. Her popularity in the south and among her base provides her with a strong foundation, which the current administration may find difficult to counter. The challenges to her political career are expected to continue, given the current political climate and the likelihood of further legal and political battles. The current administration may need to consider alternative strategies to address the growing influence of Duterte and her supporters in the coming months.