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Philip Morris (PM) surged 3.16% on July 29, 2025, with a trading volume of $1.52 billion, ranking 59th in market activity. The stock’s performance followed mixed Q2 earnings, where non-GAAP earnings met expectations but revenue fell short of estimates. Management highlighted strong growth in smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, which offset declining cigarette volumes in markets such as Indonesia and Turkey.
Analyst questions during the earnings call underscored strategic focus areas. CFO Emmanuel Babeau noted that smoke-free momentum remains robust, with ZYN restocking resuming post-supply constraints and IQOS growth accelerating in international markets. However, full-year guidance emphasized challenges in the second half, including weaker phasing and reduced one-off benefits. Margins held steady at 36.6%, supported by pricing power and operational efficiencies.
Institutional activity reflected diverging views.
Inc. reduced its stake by 6.2%, while Brighton Jones LLC and RWA Wealth Partners LLC increased holdings. Analysts upgraded price targets, with UBS and raising theirs to $181–$190, citing smoke-free margin expansion. Twelve firms assigned “Buy” ratings, though some cautioned about regulatory risks, particularly around FDA approvals for IQOS in the U.S.A backtest of a strategy buying top-volume stocks and holding for one day showed a 166.71% return from 2022 to 2025, outperforming the benchmark by 137.53%. The strategy achieved a 31.89% CAGR with a Sharpe ratio of 1.14, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns.

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