Philip Morris International: A Smoke-Free Future Beckons

Philip Morris International (PMI) took the stage at the 2025 Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) Conference, reaffirming its 2025 full-year forecast and showcasing its progress in delivering a smoke-free future. The company's presentation highlighted its decade-long commitment to developing and commercializing innovative smoke-free products, as well as its successful smoke-free brands and global market presence.

PMI's reaffirmed 2025 full-year forecast reflects the company's strong execution of its smoke-free transformation strategy. The company expects reported diluted EPS of $6.55 to $6.68, with adjusted diluted EPS of $7.04 - $7.17, representing a projected increase of 7.2% to 9.1% versus 2024. Excluding an adverse currency impact, at then prevailing exchange rates, of $0.22 per share, this represents growth of 10.5% to 12.5%. The assumptions underlying this forecast remain unchanged versus those communicated by PMI in its earnings release of February 6, 2025.

PMI's smoke-free products are now available for sale in 95 markets, with approximately 38.6 million adult users. The smoke-free business accounted for approximately 39% of PMI's total full-year 2024 net revenues, marking a significant milestone in the company's business transformation. This achievement is particularly notable as it approaches the tipping point where smoke-free products could become the majority revenue driver, potentially triggering a re-rating of the company's valuation multiples as it shifts from a traditional tobacco to a modern nicotine innovation company.

PMI's first-mover advantage in the smoke-free category, backed by significant R&D investment since 2008, has created substantial barriers to entry. The company's FDA authorizations for IQOS, ZYN, and General snus provide significant competitive advantages in the U.S. market, while the Swedish Match acquisition has strengthened PMI's global smoke-free portfolio, particularly in the fast-growing modern oral category. PMI's presence in 95 markets with 38.6 million adult users of smoke-free products demonstrates strong commercial execution and consumer acceptance, providing recurring revenue streams and network effects that support sustainable growth.

PMI's expansion into wellness and healthcare areas suggests a long-term vision beyond nicotine, potentially opening new growth vectors while leveraging existing scientific and regulatory capabilities. The company's reaffirmed 2025 full-year forecast and progress in delivering a smoke-free future demonstrate PMI's commitment to its transformation strategy and its potential for continued success in the years to come.

In conclusion, PMI's presentation at the 2025 CAGNY Conference showcased the company's strong execution of its smoke-free transformation strategy, with a reaffirmed 2025 full-year forecast and significant progress in delivering a smoke-free future. The company's first-mover advantage, global market presence, and expansion into wellness and healthcare areas position PMI for continued success in the years to come.