Philip Morris Extends Losing Streak to Five Days with 12.58% Drop

Philip Morris (PM) concluded the latest session at $157.77, marking a 1.96% decline and extending its losing streak to five consecutive days, culminating in a 12.58% drop over this period. This sharp downturn establishes $155.70 as immediate near-term support, breached during the session, while overhead resistance now materializes near $160.60–$161.08, aligning with the latest high and prior consolidation zones.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns underscore bearish dominance, with the five-day decline characterized by consistent lower closes and limited upper wicks, indicating sustained selling pressure. The notable 8.43% down day on July 22 featured a long red body and high volume, confirming distribution. The current consolidation near $157.77 suggests temporary indecision, but failure to reclaim $160.60 would likely resume the downtrend. Key support now resides at $155.70 (July 28 low), with secondary support near $150.62–$151.23 from April 2025 lows. Resistance is robust between $165.27–$170.20, a prior congestion area now acting as supply.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) at $171.32, 100-day MA at $167.45, and 200-day MA at $158.55 reveal critical confluence zones. Price currently trades below all three MAs, confirming a bearish trend structure. The 50-day MA crossed below the 100-day MA in early July, a "death cross" that accelerated downward momentum. With the 200-day MA hovering just above current price ($158.55), this level becomes pivotal; sustained trading beneath it may trigger algorithmic selling. The descending MA alignment (50 < 100 < 200) signals entrenched weakness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) registers at -4.22 with the signal line at -3.85, reflecting bearish momentum as the MACD remains below zero and its signal. However, the histogram shows tentative stabilization, suggesting downside exhaustion. KDJ (9,3,3) reveals %K at 18.7 and %D at 15.3, both deeply oversold but without bullish crossover confirmation. While MACD divergence is absent, the KDJ’s oversold extremes warrant monitoring for reversal signals, though both oscillators align with the broader downtrend until proven otherwise.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day SMA at $161.89, σ=3.45) are expanding, reflecting rising volatility following the sharp decline. Price currently trades below the lower band ($155.00), which typically signals oversold conditions but may also indicate capitulation. Band expansion alongside price rejection of the lower boundary suggests potential for a mean-reversion bounce toward the middle band ($161.89), though sustained trading below $155.00 would invalidate this and extend the downtrend.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 19.8 million shares during the July 22 breakdown, validating bearish conviction as price sliced below key supports. Subsequent down days saw lower volume (e.g., 4.5 million shares on July 25), indicating waning selling pressure near $155–$160. This divergence between price continuation and volume contraction may foreshadow exhaustion. However, any rally attempt must coincide with expanding volume to confirm demand; failure to do so would suggest bearish continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 28.6, deeply oversold and nearing extreme levels last seen during April’s consolidation. While this reading suggests downside exhaustion, RSI’s tendency to linger in oversold territory during strong trends warrants caution. Bullish divergence remains absent as RSI makes new lows alongside price. A recovery above 30–35 would provide initial relief signals, but sustained trend reversal requires reconquering the 40–45 midpoint.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent downswing from the June 23 peak ($185.47) to the July 28 trough ($155.70) reveals critical levels for countertrend resistance. The 23.6% level at $178.44 aligns with the July 21 high, while 38.2% at $174.09 converges with the early July range midpoint. The 50% level at $170.58 matches overhead resistance from late June. Current price action below all retracement levels underscores bearish dominance. For a meaningful reversal, PM must reclaim $170.58 (50% level), but the immediate downtrend trajectory may test $150.62 (61.8% extension of the downswing).
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence of bearish signals strengthens the downtrend narrative: price below all key MAs, RSI and KDJ in oversold territory without bullish divergence, and Fibonacci resistance layered above. However, volume contraction, oversold RSI, and KDJ readings suggest near-term exhaustion. The absence of bullish divergence limits reversal credibility, though Bollinger Band oversold extremes may catalyze a technical bounce toward $161.08 (recent high) or $165.27 (July 22 low). A breach of $155.70 risks targeting $150.62–$151.23, a critical long-term support zone. Investors should monitor RSI stabilization above 30 and KDJ crossover for early reversal signs, but the burden of proof remains on bulls to invalidate the prevailing downtrend.