Phala Network/Tether Market Overview – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-25)

• Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) closed near the session low, indicating bearish sentiment amid a broad sell-off.
• Volatility increased as price dropped from $0.0987 to $0.0934, with volume peaking at ~640k PHA in the final 30-minute window.
• RSI approached oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term buying interest, but downward momentum remains strong.
• Bollinger Bands widened, suggesting increased volatility, while the price remains below the 50-period moving average.
• A key support zone appears at $0.0934–$0.0936, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.0939.

Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) opened at $0.0986 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.0990 before closing at $0.0934 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total volume reached approximately 5,363,804 PHA, with a notional turnover of ~$504,353. The price action suggests a continuation of bearish momentum, with key support levels being tested toward the end of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a bearish continuation through a series of lower highs and lower lows, with no significant bullish reversal patterns emerging. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 2025-09-25 03:30 ET, confirming the downward pressure. A bearish flag formation is visible as price consolidates slightly above the 0.0934 level, a key support. A doji formed near the 0.0936 level, hinting at a potential short-term pause in the decline, but without a strong bullish follow-through, further bearish movement remains likely.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained below the price, confirming the bearish bias. The 50-period moving average dipped below the 0.0940 level during the session, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at $0.0955, while the 200-period MA is at $0.0965, suggesting the current move remains within a broader bearish trend, with a retest of the 50/200 MA crossover unlikely in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved further below the signal line, with a negative histogram expanding, indicating a strong bearish momentum phase. The RSI indicator reached a low of 29, entering oversold territory, which may prompt short-term buying but does not confirm a reversal. A sustained RSI move above 50 or a bullish divergence would be required for a potential short-covering rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the drop from $0.0990 to $0.0934, reflecting heightened volatility. The price has remained below the 20-period lower band for multiple periods, indicating strong bearish control. A test of the lower band at $0.0933 may occur before any meaningful bounce, though it remains uncertain if this will result in a reversal or further consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final hour of the session, reaching ~640k PHA, signaling increased selling pressure. Turnover also spiked during the same period, with large notional turnover of ~$60k in the last 30 minutes. This concentration of selling suggests institutional or large holder participation. No significant price-volume divergence was observed, which supports the continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% of the recent swing from $0.0987 to $0.0934 is located at $0.0939. This level acted as a minor resistance and is now a potential support if the price rebounds. The 50% retracement level is at $0.0961, a critical threshold for a potential trend reversal. A close above this level would be necessary for a meaningful bullish breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when RSI drops below 30 and the price breaks below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0939, with a target aligned with the 50-period MA on the daily chart. The high volume and consistent bearish momentum observed today support the strategy’s viability, particularly in a market where oversold conditions have not triggered a reversal.