PG Options Signal Bullish Bias at $160 Strike: How to Play the Earnings-Driven Volatility Play

• Options market bets: Call open interest surges at $160 strike (OI: 11,859) as UBS raises $161 price target.
• Technical tension: Price clings to 30D support at $144.49 but faces 200D MA resistance at $158.
• Earnings catalyst: Q2 results due Jan 22 could trigger 5-7% swings—options imply 22% IV spike.

Here’s the thing: Procter & Gamble is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term optimism and long-term skepticism. The options market is clearly leaning bullish, but technical indicators warn of a steep uphill climb. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Call Overload at $160: What Traders Are Really Bidding For

Options traders are piling into the PG20260116C160 call (OI: 11,859) like it’s the last life raft on a sinking ship. That’s the highest open interest of any strike this Friday, and it lines up almost perfectly with UBS’s $161 price target. Think about it—this isn’t just random buying. It’s a coordinated bet that PG will punch through its 200D MA ($154.87) and test the $160 level before expiration.

But here’s the catch: The stock is currently trading below both its 30D and 100D moving averages. The MACD histogram (-0.32) shows fading momentum, and the RSI (50.4) is stuck in neutral. This means the $160 call buyers are counting on a catalyst—specifically, the Q2 earnings report on Jan 22. If UBS’s $1.84 EPS forecast holds, the stock could get a 5-7% pop.

Why the News and Options Aren’t Telling the Same Story

UBS’s Buy rating and dividend resilience are positives, but the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and declining EPS estimates ($1.88 to $1.87) add friction. The options market is pricing in a 22% implied volatility spike, which usually happens when there’s a binary event on the horizon—like earnings. However, the put/call ratio (0.726) isn’t screaming for a short squeeze. Put open interest at $140 (OI: 8,510) suggests some hedging activity, but it’s not enough to tip the scales.

3 Trade Setups to Ride the Earnings Volatility Wave

1. Options Play: Buy PG20260123C150 (next Friday’s $150 call, OI: 8,455). Why? If PG gaps up on earnings, this strike gives 7% upside potential with 3 days to expiry. Target exit at $155 (5% profit) if the 200D MA breaks.
2. Stock Play: Consider entry near $144.50 if price holds above the 30D support ($144.48–$144.68). Set a tight stop at $143.65 (intraday low) and aim for $148.73 (Bollinger Upper Band).
3. Hedge Strategy: Sell PG20260116P140 (OI: 8,510) if you’re long stock. This captures premium decay while insuring against a last-minute earnings miss.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch Before Expiry

The next 6 days will be critical. If PG closes above $150 by Jan 23, the $160 call buyers could see their bets pay off. But if earnings fall short of $1.84, the puts at $140 might get a sudden rush of buyers. Either way, the options market has already priced in most of the uncertainty—so the real money will be made by those who act after the report, not before.

Bottom line: This isn’t a long-term buy. It’s a tactical play on a stock that’s fighting its technicals but has a clear catalyst in 5 days. The $150–$160 range is where the action happens. Stay nimble, and don’t let emotion override the charts.