PG Options Signal Bullish Bias at $150–$155, But $145 Support Could Force Reassessment

• PG trades at $145.00, down 0.92% from its 52-week high of $155.00
• Call open interest dominates at $150–$155 strikes, while puts cluster at $145–$140
• UBS reiterates $161 price target, but Q2 earnings forecast shows 0.5% decline

Here’s the thing: Procter & Gamble’s options market is sending a mixed but actionable message. Call buying at higher strikes suggests a quiet bet on a rebound, but the $145 support level could force a reckoning if the stock breaks below it. Let’s break down what traders should watch today.

Bullish Calls at $150–$155 vs. Defensive Puts at $145

Options traders are clearly split. The PG20260116C150 and PG20260116C155 calls (expiring Friday) have 8,568 and 9,911 open contracts—nearly double the next-highest call. That’s a big bet someone thinks PG will rally above its 200-day MA of $155.00. But don’t ignore the puts: the PG20260116P145 strike has 9,019 open contracts, showing a hard stop for bears at $145.00.

The put/call ratio of 0.72 (calls > puts) leans bullish, but here’s the catch: PG’s 200-day MA at $155.00 is a major psychological hurdle. If the stock can’t break above $146.29 (today’s intraday high), those bullish calls might expire worthless. Conversely, a close below $144.35 (today’s low) would trigger a test of the $138.75 Bollinger Band support.

Earnings Whispers and UBS’s $161 Target

The news flow is a tug-of-war. UBS’s $161 target is tempting, but the Q2 earnings forecast of $1.87/share (down 0.5% YoY) isn’t inspiring. The rejected mini-tender offer at $100/share is a small win for P&G’s board, but insider selling (like CFO’s 1,000-share dump) adds noise.

Here’s the real wildcard: the January 22 earnings report. If PG surprises to the upside, the $150–$155 calls could ignite. But if earnings miss and guidance is weak, the $145–$140 put cluster might become a death spiral. Retail traders should watch the 10-day RSI (59.57) closely—it’s neutral but could pivot into overbought territory if bulls take control.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Aggressives, Puts for Cautious

For options: Buy the PG20260116C150 call (strike price $150) if PG breaks above $146.29. The 30-day $146–$148 call strikes (next Friday’s exp) have lower OI but could offer better leverage if the stock gaps up. On the downside, the PG20260123P140 put (strike $140, expiring Jan 23) is a safer bet for hedging, given the 1,314 open contracts.

For stock: Consider entry near $145.00 if PG holds above today’s low of $144.35. Target $148.00 (upper Bollinger Band) as a short-term goal, but exit if it fails to hold $143.38 (middle Bollinger Band). A break below $144.35 would signal a deeper correction toward $138.75.

Volatility on the Horizon

PG is dancing on a tightrope. The options market is pricing in a 7–10% move by expiration, but the fundamentals are murky. If you’re long-term bullish, use the dip to add near $143.38 (30-day MA). If you’re bearish, the $145–$140 put cluster is your friend—but don’t bet the farm. This stock isn’t going straight up or down; it’s a chess game with every move counting.