Pfizer's Golden Cross: A Prolonged Upward Trend Ahead?

Pfizer's stock has been trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since mid-August, a "golden cross" signal indicating a prolonged upward trend. The company's strengths include a strong position in oncology, with rising revenues driven by drugs like Xtandi and Padcev. Pfizer's new drugs and the Seagen acquisition are also driving top-line growth, with a focus on expanding the labels of approved products. The company expects a 6% revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2030.

Pfizer's stock (PFE) has been trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) since mid-August, signaling a "golden cross" and indicating a prolonged upward trend. This positive technical indicator suggests that the stock's recent price performance has been stronger than its longer-term performance [2].

Strengths in Oncology and New Product Launches

Pfizer's strong position in oncology is a key driver of its success. The company's oncology revenues have been rising, with products like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, and Padcev contributing significantly. Pfizer's oncology revenues grew 9% in the first half of 2025 [2]. Additionally, the company has ventured into the oncology biosimilars space and markets six biosimilars for cancer. Pfizer's oncology clinical pipeline is also robust, with several candidates entering late-stage development, such as sasanlimab, vepdegestrant, and sigvotatug vedotin. By 2030, the company expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio [2].

Pfizer's new drugs and the Seagen acquisition are also driving top-line growth. The company's non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, as well as newly launched and acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. These products delivered $4.7 billion in revenues in the first half of 2025, rising approximately 15% operationally versus last year [2]. Pfizer expects the 2025 to 2030 revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to be approximately 6% [2].

Uncertainty and Challenges

Despite these strengths, Pfizer faces several challenges. The sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, have declined significantly since 2022 and have stabilized in 2025. However, their sales are usually weighted toward the second half of the year and are difficult to estimate as they depend on infection rates. There is an element of uncertainty related to COVID sales, and they may decline further in future years [2].

Additionally, Pfizer expects a moderate negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (LOE) in 2025, with a significant impact expected in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz, and Xtandi, will face patent expirations [2]. The Medicare Part D redesign under the IRA also poses a challenge, with an unfavorable impact of approximately $1 billion expected in 2025 [2].

Stock Valuation and Performance

From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its 5-year mean. The stock's price/earnings ratio is 7.98 forward earnings, significantly lower than the industry's 14.78 and the stock's 5-year mean of 10.75 [2]. This makes Pfizer's stock relatively cheaper compared to other large drugmakers like AbbVie ABBV, Novo Nordisk NVO, Eli Lilly LLY, AstraZeneca, and J&J [2].

References

[1] https://www.pharmexec.com/view/pfizer-lay-off-100-employees-seagen
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizers-golden-cross-signals-strength-155900087.html